Top 6 forecast (for what it’s worth)

To be quite honest, my interest in this season is flagging. Couple this with the inherent difficulty in modeling Idol in a post-DialIdol age and, well, the forecast has a ton of uncertainty.

Name WNTS Rating (high) Popularity Safe Probability
Nick 75 9.9 74.5%
Tyanna 70 14.3 73.6%
Clark 65 51.6 72.6%
JAX 60 14.3 71.2%
Quentin 65 7.7 65.3%
Rayvon 75 2.2 42.7%

Generally speaking, the safety of a contestant in rounds with multiple performances depends most heavily on their best performance of the night and on the number of times they have previously appeared in the bottom group. The effect of gender virtually vanishes. Votefair becomes unreliable. Tonight’s high WNTS Ratings are all clustered, with no stand-out bad performance. Data and code are linked at the end of the post.

My joke last week about how it would be funny if Rayvon kept winning those one-on-one Twitter fights does not seem quite so funny now. Nevertheless, I think he’s toast this time.

Anyway, Twitter sentiment was somewhat dominated by Quentin’s outburst at Harry Connick Jr.

TwitterSentiment2015-04-16Data set: link
Code: link

Top 7 projection and Twitter sentiment

Final update: Joey sticks at down 7 points from last week, but she’s still 4th most popular. Nevertheless, she falls out of safe territory. Nick falls a little, and overtakes Rayvon as the least safe (but not by much).

Update 2: Rayvon falls as Jax rises. Still no confident picks, but Rayvon is now the least safe.

Update: new numbers. Also, the fit in the Top 7 is somewhat better using data the Top 10 to the Top 6. In that case, gender becomes less significant, as does performance order. Jax rises one slot, as does Quentin, whose numbers were lagging a bit. Joey’s popularity is still down 7 points from last week, and Tyanna’s 6 points up.

Green = projected safe, yellow = too close to call

Name WNTS Rating Popularity Order Safe Probability
Clark 80 47.0 5 98.0%
Tyanna 84 13.0 6 97.2%
Joey 50 10.0 4 69.5%
Quentin 60 7.0 3 61.0%
JAX 45 13.0 1 58.9%
Rayvon 43 2.0 7 58.1%
Nick 48 9.0 2 54.1%

Hear me out.

First of all, nobody is even close to being called in the bottom 2 outside the margin of error. The model is not projecting Jax is in the bottom 2. Nope.

However.

Historically speaking, Jax is not in good territory. First, she is a woman, and AI voters just don’t seem to like those. Her performance of Poker Face was not particularly well received (I thought it was marginally better than the rest of the internet did). And while she’s fairly popular on Votefair, she isn’t overwhelmingly so. She trails Joey, for instance.

What tips the scales somewhat against Jax is that she went first, which ain’t the best place to be. Now, you could argue, and it’s not necessarily wrong, that performance order isn’t as important now that you can vote right away on your smart phone. Ok, sure. But, I know that I wait til the end of the show, and that means other people might too. And they might forget to vote for Jax. (Full Disclosure: Since the Top 12, I have only voted for Joey.)

Twitter isn’t overwhelmingly positive on Jax either, to be honest:

TwitterSentiment2015-04-09Nick has more negatives than Jax. But Jax has almost as many as the controversial Joey Cook.

In any case,  nearly equally likely to be in the bottom 2 (yet again) is Rayvon. He’s got a great Twitter organization pulling for him, and both weeks they have made #SaveRayvon a trending hashtag. That’s something of a pickle for the Idol producers: what if the Idol save pits Rayvon as a weekly gladiator against another contestant, and like Maximus he consistently comes out ahead? Now that would be entertaining.

Things aren’t great for Quentin, although he is still better than fair to be safe. Clark, Tyanna, and Joey are all projected safe for now.

Top 8 projection and Twitter Sentiment

Final update 4/7/2015 at 11:50 PM, no changing in rankings or calls.

Updated with official numbers. Jax’s current popularity numbers are down from last week, but Votefair is still gathering data. Right now 60% of the popularity is the new week’s numbers, 40% last week’s. This reduces the noise in the forecast without really sacrificing anything, since the numbers are 100% new numbers by the day of the show. Joey’s numbers are up a 9 points from last week, which is a bit more volatile than normal.

Green = projected safe, red = projected bottom 3, yellow = too close to call.

Name WNTS Rating Popularity Order Safe Probability
Clark 84 46.0 7 85.7%
Joey 71 17.0 4 78.3%
Rayvon 68 0.0 8 69.5%
JAX 70 12.0 2 68.0%
Quentin 66 6.0 5 64.9%
Tyanna 54 8.0 3 57.1%
Nick 39 10.0 1 52.0%
Qaasim 10 2.0 6 24.6%

Qaasim appears to be in trouble, but I reserve the right to rewrite this wrap-up after official numbers come in from WNTS.

With that qualification out of the way, it’s highly believable to me that Qaasim could be eliminated. He was saved, and surviving only 2 rounds since a save would be low for a saved contestant. However, in a night of pretty good performances, his stood out as being pretty bad. The only advantage Qaasim has is that he sang near the end of the show.

If it comes down to Twitter again, my data would seem to suggest that Qaasim would be in trouble:

TwitterSentiment2015-04-02He has the highest number of negatives by about 6 percentage points, followed by Nick and Tyanna. Joey recovers significantly from last week. Jax is in the top spot, followed by Clark.

Third most popular on Twitter sentiment was Rayvon, and maybe that shouldn’t be a surprise. Although I think Rayvon was probably not the lowest vote-getter, his fate was left up to Twitter. Looking at the Twitter trends:

trends#SaveRayvon trended, while #SaveDaniel did not. I have no way of determining which hashtag got the highest volume of tweets, as that is not a search feature of the Twitter API.