I’m not really inclined to agree that Naima is the next most likely to be voted off. She’s just more memorable than some of the other girls, although her performances for the past couple of weeks have been at best uneven (and, to be perfectly honest, pretty bad at times). That said, when you say something about Naima, people who watch Idol will know immediately who you’re talking about. The judges call this “flavor” or, perhaps, “flava.” When you say “Haley” or perhaps even “Thia” it may take people a moment to recall who you’re talking about. I’m guessing this might have played some part in Karen’s early elimination; Karen is just such a boring name, and didn’t really express who she was as a person (not that I demand everyone have a stereotypically ethnic name should they fail of being a white person).
I confess I hope the next person to be eliminated is a guy, and I do hope that it is Paul. I can really do without him, and again, I feel like when someone starts talking about “Paul” I don’t instantly know who they mean. “Oh, you mean the real quiet dude who you can barely hear?” I have a feeling that having an interesting name (Ace Young, for example) may play some small factor, though we have done no data analysis looking into that theory. “Paul McDonald” just isn’t it. It doesn’t even have the pleasing assonance of “Casey Abrams.” For that as well as his generally mediocre-to-crappy singing and performance style, I would say that if American sends a guy home, it will and should be Paul.
If the anti-female bias does come into play, I would definitely put my metaphorical money on Haley over Naima, but I have been wrong many times before.
Hey America, try shedding some mediocre dudes for awhile!