Top 11 post-game redux: assessing the model

The model was somewhat vindicated last night after a disastrous first week. I made significant improvements to the way it considered the data, and it correctly predicted the bottom 3. As I said, Naima was a sure thing, with Paul and Thia in a dead-heat. In the end, Thia was eliminated. What’s interesting to me is just how far off Dialidol was:

The bottom 6 according to Dialidol

On the one hand, Dialidol got 2/3 of the bottom 3. However, it significantly overestimated Naima, which my model had by a factor of 4 the most likely to be eliminated. I also get no sense that Lauren was possibly at risk, but Dialidol ranked her as fourth worst. Does anybody really believe that?

The WNTS approval ratings were quite different:

At this stage in the contest, these ratings carry far more weight with the voting, so a score that low for Naima was deadly. Conversely, Dialidol is so erratic at this stage that its assessment of Naima as safe was not taken seriously.

As the contest goes on, Dialidol will become more accurate, and the WNTS approval less accurate, and the model should adjust accordingly.

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