Let’s get right to it
|Name||Probability of elimination|
Now that we’re in the Top 9, the odds of being eliminated as a man get marginally bigger. The problem here is that the data from previous seasons is lopsided towards women; therefore, I’ve based current projections only on seasons with 3 or 4 women only left in the Top 9. This week now incorporates average prior approval ratings into the mix, taking the average of the last three weeks.
Conventional wisdom is that Pia Toscano needs to step up her game, and I don’t see any reason why this is wrong. Despite having only 3 women, they are still at a huge disadvantage here, and her performances lately have been perceived as boring. Her song choice this week, River Deep – Mountain High, is in my opinion a terrible choice. It is a marginally well-known song, and has a limited but disastrous track record on the show. She runs the risk of being forgettable very easily; if you’re rooting for her, it could come down to performance order, so hope for the pimp spot.
Last week notwithstanding, Haley Reinhart is still in big trouble. She has to beat Paul and Stefano by about 10 points to not be considered likely to be in the bottom 3. Lauren, Pia, and Paul are all about equally likely to go, and so their performances will sort them out. The only people I consider bulletproof are Jacob Lusk and James Durbin, though Jacob is certainly singing against type this week, as it’s Rock and Roll and he is more of a soul/R&B guy.