I sure hope this is wrong
| Contestant | Probability of elimination |
|---|---|
| Haley Reinhart | 0.289 |
| Lauren Alaina | 0.189 |
| Stefano Langone | 0.181 |
| Jacob Lusk | 0.131 |
| Paul McDonald | 0.018 |
| Casey Abrams | 0.015 |
| Pia Toscano | 0.006 |
| James Durbin | 0.002 |
| Scotty McCreery | 0.001 |
Unfortunately, it doesn’t really feel wrong to me. Women get the short stick when it comes to the Top 9, even in rounds where there are only 3 of them left. Haley’s performance was good, but not quite good enough according to the model, especially considering the order that she went.
Now there is no clear favorite to go. Haley, Lauren, Stefano, and Jacob are the likely bottom vote getters. Everyone else has a much smaller probability. But it would not be shocking if Stefano (P = 18%) were to go instead of Haley (P = 29%). But, the smart money is on Haley.
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