Now that we’re in the thick of it, any one of the remaining contestants could go this week. No result would be shocking. Based on prior years and based on the average of the previous 3 rounds, the pregame odds look something like this:
| Contestant | Sex | PriorAverage | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Lusk | M | 44 | 0.203924 |
| Stefano Langone | M | 46 | 0.185417 |
| Casey Abrams | M | 51 | 0.144875 |
| Haley Reinhart | F | 51 | 0.144875 |
| Scotty McCreery | M | 57.5 | 0.103467 |
| Lauren Alaina | F | 62 | 0.081281 |
| James Durbin | M | 70.5 | 0.050831 |
Not even a James Durbin elimination would be a total shock. However, if things keep going like they have been, I expect Jacob to go.
We can take this analysis a bit further. Supposing that all the other contestants performed at their recent average, we can ask how much better a performance Jacob or Stefano would need to be predicted to be ranked higher than Casey and Haley:
| Contestant | Score Needed For Safety | Prior Average | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stefano Langone | 61.0 | 46.0 | +15.0 |
| Jacob Lusk | 65.0 | 44.0 | +21.0 |
These scores are perfectly achievable. Many times in Idol history a contestant has managed a score on the order of 20 points above his average, or 20 points above his prior performance. It happens. However, I don’t think that this is the most likely week for it, as the theme (Songs from the 21st century) doesn’t particularly suit either contestant.
We can do the same thing in reverse for James and Lauren. How badly would they need to screw the pooch to be in danger?
| Contestant | Score Needed For Elimination | Prior Average | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Durbin | 19.0 | 70.5 | -51.5 |
| Lauren Alaina | 34.0 | 62.0 | -28.0 |
Has a contestant ever had a week-to-week swing of 50 points? In fact, it has happened. Anthony Federov succeeded in this feat, getting a 64 in the Top 6 but a 12 in the Top 5. So I would not call James totally safe, but he’s pretty damn safe.
Lauren is another story. Many contestants have had a week where they underperformed by 25-30 points. I’m not ready to call this one safe, but I also wouldn’t put any money on Lauren.
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