Top 7 forecast

Contestant Order WNTS
Average of
last 3 rounds
of Elimination
Stefano Langone 6 34 45.7 4.72 0.22633591
Jacob Lusk 4 35 47.0 14.81 0.21236367
Scotty McCreery 1 29 57.3 24.71 0.16798150
Casey Abrams 5 53 56.7 7.67 0.10278103
Haley Reinhart 3 77 57.7 8.96 0.05709691
Lauren Alaina 7 60 67.66 12.65 0.05696180
James Durbin 2 66 70.33 12.55 0.04441594

I posted earlier this week about how good of a performance Jacob and Stefano needed to be safe.  Needless to say, they didn’t perform nearly well enough to make this a reality; in fact, the approval ratings put them lower than their previous 3 round average. Stefano Langone, by a hair, is the most likely to go, followed by Jacob. For the first time, Scotty is predicted to be in the bottom 3, though it would not be shocking if it was Casey. Haley, Lauren, and James are likely to be safe.

A bit of explanation is warranted at this point about how the model considers things. There is a significant effect of “momentum” in American Idol at this stage in the finals. This may not be surprising, but the most significant factor determining whether someone is eliminated isn’t how well he or she did that week, but how he or she has been doing recently. In this case, I included the average WNTS rating for the prior 3 weeks. This is not to say that this week’s performance doesn’t matter at all, but it isn’t as significant (either in odds or in statistical significance) as how well the contestant has been doing lately.

Dialidol’s predictions, I’m sorry to say, are just too unreliable right now to include in the model. Dialidol had a truly abysmal record in Season 9, and quite frankly, I’m not seeing that they’ve improved things too much. They have Jacob ranked second, and safe. I don’t buy it.

James Durbin and Lauren Alaina have emerged as the front-runners in the contest. Unless things drastically change, my guess is they will be in the Top 3. As to who is in it with them, your guess is as good as mine.

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