Top 6 forecast

Contestant WNTS Rating
(average for the night)
(last 3 rounds)
of Elimination
Jacob Lusk 26 6.42 41 0.267953
Casey Abrams 50 5.41 51.66 0.132499
Scotty McCreery 60.5 10.77 48 0.120342
Lauren Alaina 48.5 5.91 61.33 0.103172
Haley Reinhart 69.5 5.63 59.66 0.071256
James Durbin 58.5 7.12 69 0.067093

I really have no compunction about saying that Jacob Lusk is almost sure to go home. Rounding out the Bottom 3 should be Casey and Scotty. Casey’s performance of Hi-De-Ho fell flat according to most people, and his score was only barely buoyed by a duet with Haley (scoring more than 10 points higher than his solo performance). However, considering the momentum effect, Jacob is basically a lock to go home, more than twice as likely as his next competitor.

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