| Contestant | WNTS Rating (average for the night) |
Dialidol score |
Prior Average (last 3 rounds) |
Probability of Elimination |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Lusk | 26 | 6.42 | 41 | 0.267953 |
| Casey Abrams | 50 | 5.41 | 51.66 | 0.132499 |
| Scotty McCreery | 60.5 | 10.77 | 48 | 0.120342 |
| Lauren Alaina | 48.5 | 5.91 | 61.33 | 0.103172 |
| Haley Reinhart | 69.5 | 5.63 | 59.66 | 0.071256 |
| James Durbin | 58.5 | 7.12 | 69 | 0.067093 |
I really have no compunction about saying that Jacob Lusk is almost sure to go home. Rounding out the Bottom 3 should be Casey and Scotty. Casey’s performance of Hi-De-Ho fell flat according to most people, and his score was only barely buoyed by a duet with Haley (scoring more than 10 points higher than his solo performance). However, considering the momentum effect, Jacob is basically a lock to go home, more than twice as likely as his next competitor.
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