I’m not really comfortable changing the forecast post-game from the pre-game. However, just for grins, here’s what happens if you include the effect of tonight’s approval ratings and the Dialidol score
| Contestant | Sex | Today’s Avg | Dialidol score | Prior Average | Probability of Elimination |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Lusk | M | 24 | 11.29 | 32.5 | 0.909681 |
| Scotty McCreery | M | 62.5 | 20.91 | 48.75 | 0.117288 |
| James Durbin | M | 49 | 11.83 | 63.5 | 0.040166 |
| Lauren Alaina | F | 79.5 | 11.51 | 55 | 0.027193 |
| Haley Reinhart | F | 84 | 10.1 | 65.5 | 0.005458 |
In other words, unless this year is very different from every prior year, Jacob Lusk is going home.
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