Top 5 forecast

I’m not really comfortable changing the forecast post-game from the pre-game. However, just for grins, here’s what happens if you include the effect of tonight’s approval ratings and the Dialidol score

Contestant Sex Today’s Avg Dialidol score Prior Average Probability
of Elimination
Jacob Lusk M 24 11.29 32.5 0.909681
Scotty McCreery M 62.5 20.91 48.75 0.117288
James Durbin M 49 11.83 63.5 0.040166
Lauren Alaina F 79.5 11.51 55 0.027193
Haley Reinhart F 84 10.1 65.5 0.005458

In other words, unless this year is very different from every prior year, Jacob Lusk is going home.

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