Top 4 projection: Women on top

Disclaimer: The following analysis is more opinion than science. Moreover, it only projects what will happen if this season is like past American Idol seasons. Projected probabilities are just that, probabilities. Anything can happen.

Name Prior Average (4 rounds) Dialidol score Today’s Avg Probability of elimination
Scotty 53.333 24.337 50.5 0.30407495
James 58.666 14.711 57.0 0.21940829
Lauren 63.1666 15.676 63.5 0.14932903
Haley 71.666 11.954 63.0 0.06788917

Nobody tonight had anything close to a disaster. However, in an eyebrow raising move, James Durbin was placed in the statistically safest slots (first and last), had pyrotechnics, and sang a Journey song (previously not cleared for Idol).

Here’s what I think, and this is pure speculation. James isn’t doing nearly as well as people think. The week 2 rounds ago when the Bottom 2 was not revealed (only Casey was revealed to be gone), James was in fact the second-lowest vote getter. So, the model assigning him the second-most likely to go this week is anything but crazy. I buy it.

Whether or not I think Scotty will go home, if this season is like past ones, he should. My personal feeling, though, is that Lauren is in trouble.

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  • Hannah

    I think you are spot on in your predictions. Tonight will pit country singer against country singer in the bottom 2. I’m not an absolute believer in the voting process, and if it comes down to Scotty and Lauren I think the producers might fudge a little even if Scotty got the least number of votes and send Lauren packing. Scotty has Nashville chomping at the bit and Idol sees MONEY….which of course is their goal…to make big bucks off of their stars.