Disclaimer: The following analysis is more opinion than science. Moreover, it only projects what will happen if this season is like past American Idol seasons. Projected probabilities are just that, probabilities. Anything can happen.
| Name | Prior Average (4 rounds) | Dialidol score | Today’s Avg | Probability of elimination |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotty | 53.333 | 24.337 | 50.5 | 0.30407495 |
| James | 58.666 | 14.711 | 57.0 | 0.21940829 |
| Lauren | 63.1666 | 15.676 | 63.5 | 0.14932903 |
| Haley | 71.666 | 11.954 | 63.0 | 0.06788917 |
Nobody tonight had anything close to a disaster. However, in an eyebrow raising move, James Durbin was placed in the statistically safest slots (first and last), had pyrotechnics, and sang a Journey song (previously not cleared for Idol).
Here’s what I think, and this is pure speculation. James isn’t doing nearly as well as people think. The week 2 rounds ago when the Bottom 2 was not revealed (only Casey was revealed to be gone), James was in fact the second-lowest vote getter. So, the model assigning him the second-most likely to go this week is anything but crazy. I buy it.
Whether or not I think Scotty will go home, if this season is like past ones, he should. My personal feeling, though, is that Lauren is in trouble.
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