Top 3 Forecast: Scotty’s out or he wins

Contestant Today’s Min Today’s Max Today’s Avg Prior Average
(4 weeks)
of Elimination
Scotty McCreery 41 56 49 53.71 0.613758
Lauren Alaina 33 74 49 63.28 0.207999
Haley Reinhart 41 81 64 72.85 0.115363

Is there a plausible way Scotty can stay in the contest? Sure. Lauren had the worst performance of the night. Haley had a polarizing performance for her last song.

But I wouldn’t put much money on it. If Scotty McCreery is safe tonight, he is overperforming by an outlandish 40 percentage points. If he is not eliminated, basically, there are a huge amount of people voting for him regardless of the caliber of his performance. If that’s the case, there is no plausible scenario where he does not win the entire competition.

Basically, you can find opinions on all sides as to who’s going home. Dialidol (before accounting for the West Coast) calls for Haley. Votefair and think Lauren. DJ Slim and my model say Scotty by a mile.

So, it’s going to go this way. If Scotty gets through,  it doesn’t matter which girl does: he wins. If Scotty is (rightly) eliminated, Lauren and Haley will have a tough competition. Haley did herself a world of good today with her first performance. But Lauren would be a slight favorite to win.

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