Pre-game projections (for what they’re worth)

Here are the projections for the men and women in the first week, based on a model that assumes that each contestant puts in an average performance (50/100). As such, any variance depends only on pre-exposure. Note that I have included here Jermaine Jones and Schyler Dixon, and assumed that only 5 from each gender will get through to the finals based on voting, with perhaps 2-3 being chosen by the judges in a wild card round. This drags the percentages down from  the last pre-voting projection, which included only 12 people per gender and assumed 6 got through. As such, this is only a projection on what will happen on Thursday from voting. The individual probabilities are higher to “make the finals”, because that includes a wild card round, which a better singer is more likely to get picked in. These are probabilities for “being selected by the audience”.

Once the approval ratings are in, I’ll post the full projections. WNTS says they will be publishing the data on Wednesday night.

The actual approval ratings for a given song are more important than pre-exposure, which is all that these numbers are based on, so be prepared to see a lot of movement in them.


Name Pre-exposure
Probability (%)
of advancing
Heejun Han 1424 44
Reed Grimm 1158 42.1
Phillip Phillips 1058 41.3
Creighton Fraker 1036 41.1
Jermaine Jones 1014 41
Adam Brock 947 40.4
Colton Dixon 728 38.3
Eben Frankewitz 718 38.2
Joshua Ledet 466 35.5
Aaron Sanders 450 35.3
Jeremy Rosado 441 35.2
Deandre Brackensick 439 35.2
Chase Likens 190 32.3


Name Pre-exposure
Probability (%)
of advancing
Jen Hirsh 812 47.6
Shannon Magrane 738 46.2
Skylar Laine 726 46
Jessica Sanchez 601 43
Erika Van Pelt 570 42.1
Brielle Von Hugel 537 41.1
Schyler Dixon 429 37.5
Elise Testone 420 37.2
Baylie Brown 366 35.1
Haley Johnsen 346 34.3
Hallie Day 317 33.2
Hollie Cavanagh 210 28.7
Chelsea Sorrell 198 28.2

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