Here are the projections for the men and women in the first week, based on a model that assumes that each contestant puts in an average performance (50/100). As such, any variance depends only on pre-exposure. Note that I have included here Jermaine Jones and Schyler Dixon, and assumed that only 5 from each gender will get through to the finals based on voting, with perhaps 2-3 being chosen by the judges in a wild card round. This drags the percentages down from the last pre-voting projection, which included only 12 people per gender and assumed 6 got through. As such, this is only a projection on what will happen on Thursday from voting. The individual probabilities are higher to “make the finals”, because that includes a wild card round, which a better singer is more likely to get picked in. These are probabilities for “being selected by the audience”.
Once the approval ratings are in, I’ll post the full projections. WNTS says they will be publishing the data on Wednesday night.
The actual approval ratings for a given song are more important than pre-exposure, which is all that these numbers are based on, so be prepared to see a lot of movement in them.
|Erika Van Pelt||570||42.1|
|Brielle Von Hugel||537||41.1|