Top 13 projection

Tonight was not a very close call according to most accounts. Hollie Cavanagh and Jessica Sanchez scored huge points. Joshua Ledet remained mostly steady, as did Skylar Laine. On the flip side, Shannon Magrane and Elise Testone cratered, and Jeremy Rosado and Jermaine Jones both declined from last week.

Here are the model projections if this were a normal elimination

Contestant Sex WNTS Rating Prev. Rating Elimination Probability (%)
Shannon Magrane F 23 62 47.5
Elise Testone F 33 84 25.8
Jeremy Rosado M 32 55 10.0
Jermaine Jones M 40 51 5.3
Heejun Han M 45 38 3.6
Colton Dixon M 51 63 2.2
Deandre Brackensick M 56 37 1.5
Erika Van Pelt F 73 63 1.2
Phillip Phillips M 60 67 1.1
Skylar Laine F 78 74 0.8
Joshua Ledet M 70 81 0.5
Hollie Cavanagh F 88 76 0.3
Jessica Sanchez F 91 82 0.3

Of course, since this scheme has never happened before, it’s impossible to compute anything like a model of what will happen. But assuming the voting isn’t perturbed too much by the his/hers scheme (that is, assuming that people don’t think about this rule when deciding whom to vote for), then Shannon Magrane has a very large probability of being eliminated. To the extent that Elise Testone’s performance is ameliorated by her very highly rated performance last week (it doesn’t seem to be statistically significant), she may get a pass.

As for the men, there just isn’t enough distance between Jeremy, Jermaine, and Heejun Han for me to be anything like confident about that. Nevertheless, for concreteness sake, I’ll say that the bottom guy and girl are Jeremy Rosado and Shannon Magrane. I believe Jeremy will be eliminated by the judges.

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