Top 11 projections

Today was a day with no real standouts, and with a lot of competing factors that are smoothing out the competition. Joshua Ledet is likely anemic in votes, but on the other hand turned in a wildly (some would say overly effusively) praised performance. Erika Van Pelt dropped big when she can’t really afford to. Elise Testone, after a 1 week slump, appears to be back in action.

Despite a dismal performance, it seems like Heejun Han is going to squeak by yet again. Why he is not the VFTW pick is totally baffling to me. Instead they’ve gone with Shannon Magrane, which is a defensible but still otherwise bone-headed pick. Shannon will likely be in the bottom 3, and probably will be eliminated. Erika and Deandre will probably end up in the bottom 3. With numbers this close, though, I’d be comfortable saying that any of the first 6 contestants listed below could be in the bottom 3 and it would not be a surprise at all.

Contestant Sex WNTS.Rating WNTS last week Dialidol.score DialIdol Rank Probability of elimination (%)
Shannon Magrane F 34 23 3.359 6 17.88
Erika Van Pelt F 52 73 2.307 8 16.85
Deandre Brackensick M 29 56 4.347 5 15.06
Skylar Laine F 65 78 1.943 9 13.35
Hollie Cavanagh F 82 88 1.215 11 13.22
Heejun Han M 18 45 9.372 3 11.18
Joshua Ledet M 88 70 1.824 10 6.25
Colton Dixon M 71 51 2.344 7 4.04
Jessica Sanchez F 56 91 10.184 2 0.95
Elise Testone F 75 33 9.35 4 0.85
Phillip Phillips M 65 60 13.326 1 0.37

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