Update: Final Dialidol scores revised somewhat. None of the rankings changed, so the numbers stayed the same.
Well, let’s see what we’ve got:
| Contestant | WNTS Rating | Dialidol score | Dialidol Rank | Probability of Elimination (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heejun Han | 21 | 4.75 | 5 | 41.63 |
| Joshua Ledet | 43 | 5.052 | 1 | 26.09 |
| Skylar Laine | 51 | 4.606 | 3 | 11.26 |
| Deandre Brackensick | 37 | 0.831 | 10 | 6.51 |
| Hollie Cavanagh | 46 | 1.977 | 8 | 5.62 |
| Phillip Phillips | 61 | 3.008 | 6 | 3.35 |
| Jessica Sanchez | 81 | 7.364 | 2 | 2.2 |
| Colton Dixon | 78 | 4.165 | 4 | 1.76 |
| Erika Van Pelt | 71 | 1.214 | 9 | 0.97 |
| Elise Testone | 85 | 2.96 | 7 | 0.61 |
I cannot disclaim these figures enough. The model is heavily weighted towards song approval rating (from WhatNotToSing) during the earlier weeks. It does take into account Dialidol, but at a modest level. So, despite Erika Van Pelt having almost the lowest Dialidol score, it considers her a favorite to stay on. I do not agree. I think Erika probably will be in the bottom 3 or eliminated altogether. Particularly with the model assigning her less than 1% chance…it’s ridiculous. Still, these are the honest numbers.
With my personal skepticism of Erika aside, I think that the top pick, Heejun, may be in the ballpark. I don’t think gimmicks like he pulled tonight work very well, and his performance was atrocious.
Some other thoughts: Skylar will not be in the bottom 3. As the only country singer in the contest, it’s highly unlikely at this point (though I’ve been chastened by my Chase Likens call in the semifinals). Elise Testone, well, what can I say? Last week she was in the bottom 3, and even with the lowest assigned probability, there’s every reason to think she will be again.
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