| Contestant | WNTS Rating | Dialidol score (rank) | Bottom 3 Previously? | Prev. Rating (avg of last 3 rounds) | Probability of elimination (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hollie Cavanagh | 60 | 7.09 (4th) | Yes | 42.33 | 23.28 |
| Elise Testone | 69 | 3.96 (7th) | Yes | 72.33 | 19.73 |
| Joshua Ledet | 71 | 12.76 (1st) | Yes | 53.66 | 18.96 |
| Skylar Laine | 74 | 11.55 (3rd) | Yes | 64.66 | 17.81 |
| Phillip Phillips | 41 | 12.3 (2nd) | No | 55.33 | 11.92 |
| Colton Dixon | 74 | 5.47 (6th) | No | 65.00 | 4.55 |
| Jessica Sanchez | 80 | 6.36 (5th) | No | 76.66 | 3.75 |
Wow. The pack is running really even about now, with the exception of Phillip Phillips, the new VoteForTheWorst pick who, until now, has been bulletproof. Two bad reviews from the judges and a 41 overall approval, but I don’t think we’ll be losing him just yet.
The Top 7 is an odd duck. Unlike later rounds, there’s no pronounced memory effect, where people might vote for a contestant based on the strength of a previous performance. Whether a contestant had been in the Bottom 3 was the second best predictor of being in the B3 again in the Top 7. I believe that Dialidol is also predictive, but it’s impossible to make a solid statistical fit using Dialidol history, because it’s got too much jitter and there just aren’t enough data points.
My best guess is that Hollie Cavanagh will go, but I could be persuaded that anybody might be in danger. In fact, we could easily have a Pia moment, with Jessica Sanchez getting the lowest number of votes. That would almost certainly result in a judges’ save, and then the elimination of two women the following week.
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