Top 7 projection

Contestant WNTS Rating Dialidol score (rank) Bottom 3 Previously? Prev. Rating (avg of last 3 rounds) Probability of elimination (%)
Hollie Cavanagh 60 7.09 (4th) Yes 42.33 23.28
Elise Testone 69 3.96 (7th) Yes 72.33 19.73
Joshua Ledet 71 12.76 (1st) Yes 53.66 18.96
Skylar Laine 74 11.55 (3rd) Yes 64.66 17.81
Phillip Phillips 41 12.3 (2nd) No 55.33 11.92
Colton Dixon 74 5.47 (6th) No 65.00 4.55
Jessica Sanchez 80 6.36 (5th) No 76.66 3.75

Wow. The pack is running really even about now, with the exception of Phillip Phillips, the new VoteForTheWorst pick who, until now, has been bulletproof. Two bad reviews from the judges and a 41 overall approval, but I don’t think we’ll be losing him just yet.

The Top 7 is an odd duck. Unlike later rounds, there’s no pronounced memory effect, where people might vote for a contestant  based on the strength of a previous performance. Whether a contestant had been in the Bottom 3 was the second best predictor of being in the B3 again in the Top 7. I believe that Dialidol is also predictive, but it’s impossible to make a solid statistical fit using Dialidol history, because it’s got too much jitter and there just aren’t enough data points.

My best guess is that Hollie Cavanagh will go, but I could be persuaded that anybody might be in danger. In fact, we could easily have a Pia moment, with Jessica Sanchez getting the lowest number of votes. That would almost certainly result in a judges’ save, and then the elimination of two women the following week.

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