UPDATE: These numbers were computed based on bad data. See here for the correction.
The data from tonight indicates three clear favorites for bottom 3 status: Skylar, Elise, and Hollie. Elise had a high average approval rating, but ranked badly on Dialidol. Had she had two great performances, the model would assign her a lower probability, but with a score nearby other contestants, Dialidol holds sway and she is predicted to be in trouble.
Phil Phillips, while getting generally bad reviews, is ranked second on Dialidol, and therefore predicted to be safe. And Joshua, improbably, seems to be totally safe. I wonder if that is really true.
The night was fraught with bad song choices, but to me Joshua’s was the worst. Crazy Little Thing Called Love. The song has been performed five times on the show now, and Joshua’s score of 30 was below the mean score of 35 for the tune. However, people appear to have liked his second outing enough to place him merely second-worst of the night, and as top dog (dawg?) on Dialidol, he seems safe.
One might notice that the order of contestants is exactly that of Dialidol’s rankings. This is partially an artifact of there being no clear winner of the night, and partially an acknowledgement that Dialidol starts to be far more accurate at the end stages of the season. In point of fact, they have never called a finale wrong in 6 years.