Top 6 projection

UPDATE: These numbers were computed based on bad data. See here for the correction.

Contestant WNTS
Rating (avg.)
Dialidol
Rank
Previous
Rating
Probability of
elimination (%)
Skylar Laine 53 6 55.5 32.82
Elise Testone 60 5 51.5 24.71
Hollie Cavanagh 58 4 71.5 17.76
Jessica Sanchez 61 3 61 11.56
Phillip Phillips 39.5 2 61.5 8.4
Joshua Ledet 49.5 1 48.5 4.75

The data from tonight indicates three clear favorites for bottom 3 status: Skylar, Elise, and Hollie. Elise had a high average approval rating, but ranked badly on Dialidol. Had she had two great performances, the model would assign her a lower probability, but with a score nearby other contestants, Dialidol holds sway and she is predicted to be in trouble.

Phil Phillips, while getting generally bad reviews, is ranked second on Dialidol, and therefore predicted to be safe. And Joshua, improbably, seems to be totally safe. I wonder if that is really true.

The night was fraught with bad song choices, but to me Joshua’s was the worst. Crazy Little Thing Called Love. The song has been performed five times on the show now, and Joshua’s score of 30 was below the mean score of 35 for the tune. However, people appear to have liked his second outing enough to place him merely second-worst of the night, and as top dog (dawg?) on Dialidol, he seems safe.

One might notice that the order of contestants is exactly that of Dialidol’s rankings. This is partially an artifact of there being no clear winner of the night, and partially an acknowledgement that Dialidol starts to be far more accurate at the end stages of the season. In point of fact, they have never called a finale wrong in 6 years.

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  • mila

    I cheer for hollie can get.
    By his last performances deserve.

  • mila

    Gave their predictions wrong.
    Skylar Laine and pointed out Elise.

    Happier to another week of Hollie.

    Sincerity. I think the jury, Jessica pucham bag of (unsalted) and Joshua (who only screams).
    It would be horrible for American champions like them.
    what do you think?

    Mila of Brazil.

  • Lurkher

    Somewhat disagree. Idol can’t disregard the question of commercial relevance in its contestants. The potential ability, or lack thereof, of Joshua or Jessica to sell records matters more than anything else.

  • Reuben

    I think that Idol has shown a very mixed ability to select commercially successful contestants. Most seasons you look at it and say “none of the above” to the question of which can make it big. Mainly it’s the women winners who’ve been successful. And we all know what the track record Idol has with women (present season excluded!).