Top 5 preliminary projection: Phil in trouble?

As I noted in a prior post, I’m a dummy for not waiting for final numbers in the morning (so y’all in the non-east coast have a chance to vote). The numbers below are preliminary, and I’ll update them in the morning after all the returns are in.

That said, Phil Phillips looks to be in a bit of trouble.

Contestant WNTS
Rating (avg.)
DialIdol
Rank
Previous
Rating
Probability
of Elimination (%)
Phillip Phillips 31.5 5 37.5 71.15
Jessica Sanchez 61.5 4 61.5 12.93
Joshua Ledet 72.5 3 50.5 9.85
Skylar Laine 57 1 52.5 3.25
Hollie Cavanagh 79.5 2 58.5 2.83

The VoteForTheWorst pick, Phil has sailed through many rounds of voting to be the only contestant not to be in the Bottom Group. His scores have been relatively bad all season, but this week the difference between his position and the others is stark. Even Scotty McCreery did not have numbers so disparate from his competitors. Worse yet, as of 1 AM EST, he has the lowest ranking on Dialidol (it’s not even actually that close, he’s more than 2 points behind Jessica Sanchez).

Note that these numbers do not include any effect from the duet/trio, which would have dragged Phil even lower.

What’s clear is that if Phil is safe this week, he will easily win the contest, much as Scotty did last year, despite terrible numbers. If that happens, idiots like me are going to have to rethink whether these variables we spend time thinking about are just random mishmash, or if perhaps the contest is now fundamentally different from the first 9 years.

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