Well, I apologize. Last week I computed the projection using the numbers on Dialidol at midnight EST, before voting had closed, on the assumption that they don’t move all that much.
I’m an idiot. They moved a ton last week, and the model got (or should have gotten, at least) Elise Testone correct. It whiffed big on Hollie, but you can’t win them all. Here was last week’s projection using the final numbers:
| Contestant | WNTS Rating (average) |
Dialidol Rank |
Previous Rating |
Probability of elimination (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elise Testone | 56.5 | 6 | 51.5 | 32.24 |
| Skylar Laine | 52.5 | 5 | 55.5 | 25.33 |
| Jessica Sanchez | 61.5 | 4 | 61 | 17.30 |
| Joshua Ledet | 50.5 | 3 | 48.5 | 12.26 |
| Phillip Phillips | 37.5 | 2 | 61.5 | 8.46 |
| Hollie Cavanagh | 58.5 | 1 | 71.5 | 4.41 |
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