Top 4 Updated Predictions

Update: Dial Idol rankings were updated after 1am EST and now have Jessica Sanchez as their #1 vote getter. The projections have been updated accordingly.

Contestant WNTS Rating (avg) Dialidol Rank Previous Rating Probability of Elimination (%)
Joshua Ledet 69 4 72.5 40.67
Phillip Phillips 63.5 3 31.5 39.7
Hollie Cavanagh 52.5 2 79.5 13.37
Jessica Sanchez 74.5 1 61.5 6.25

Hollie Cavanagh has been predicted safe for a few weeks now, based on her Dialidol standings, but I’m not buying it tonight. With the lowest rated performances, bad reviews from the judges, and a near historical number of times in the Bottom 3, I cannot imagine she isn’t going home.

Why is the model so bad at figuring this out? With 11 data points (one per season), I don’t know what you can expect. Of course, if there was a systematic way to correct Dialidol’s ranking of Hollie to be in line with reality, I would do it, but you may as well just make up a number. There is no scientific way to do this (but check back with me in season 25, assuming I’m still alive for that).

Historically, Dialidol is quite accurate during the Top 4. However, the service has occasionally shown some blind spots, and this seems to be one of them. The model says Joshua has almost twice the chance of going home as Jessica. That’s nuts. It would be shocking if Hollie was not sent back to Texas/Liverpool tomorrow.

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  • Laurel Warren

    I am not sure what DialIdol website you are looking at, but the current standings have Jessica #1 ‘ and safe. For Joshua, Phillip and Hollie it is too close to call.

  • Reuben

    Good to know. The site read Hollie #1 at 1am my time (EST). Will update if I get a chance.