Top 3 final prediction

There is no direct historical precedent for this week. Jessica Sanchez has pulled nearly even with Joshua Ledet on Dialidol overnight, indicating that there were perhaps a ton of votes for her on the west coast*. She still barely trails Joshua In order to get around this, we could force both Jessica and Joshua to be second on Dialidol, which produces the following standings:

Contestant WNTS Rating (avg.) Dialidol Rank Bottom 3 Previously? Previous Rating Probability of
Elimination (%)
Jessica Sanchez 45.7 2 Yes 74.5 45.8
Joshua Ledet 54.7 2 Yes 69.0 31.7
Phillip Phillips 61.0 1 No 63.5 22.4

The closest possible analog for this week is Season 5, where Elliott Yamin trailed Katharine McPhee by 0.5 points on the Dialidol scale. He was eliminated. In Season 8, Danny Gokey trailed Kris Allen by 0.89 on Dialidol, and was eliminated.

Take it for what it’s worth, but the official call is Jessica Sanchez will be eliminated.

If you’re wondering how Phil’s chances have gone up, the reason is that the standings have to be normalized to 100%. If any of the contestants has their elimination probability drastically reduced, people with lower probabilities have theirs increased. I don’t think Phil is actually at risk.

*Originally this post stated that Hawaii’s votes are included in Dialidol numbers. Reader John Santos has pointed out that Dialidol closes off its voting after the Pacific time voting elapses. I still think that votes from Hawaii are important for Jessica, but not necessarily to the Dialidol figure.

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  • van

    Jessica Sanchez will be on the top2!!!

  • Bobby

    Jessica Sanchez is technically great but the tone of her voice is grating. Unpleasant!! And she has that same thing that Mcphee had. Always looking to see if the audience saw her hit that note..

    • Van

      Jessica’s over-all performance showed it all..she belongs to the top2:):) next American idol..ratings show…yahoooo!!!

    • Diana Wesner

      I feel Jessica is technically a good, trained singer…but she is seemingly starting to believe and act as if she is the winner!!! On the other hand, Philip and Joshua are humble and accept constructive criticism. I would settle for either of these 2 winning – i’m liking Joshua more and more -but my fav has been Philip since wwwwaaaaayyyy back in the very beginning!

    • Van

      Totally wrong..judges are all in for the 2 guys…racist it is…but they know the truth whatever happens Jessica Sanchez will be popular than them:):) Joshua’s voice is hurting my eardrum sorry to say,he’s a screamer:) rather choose Philip!:):)

  • Barb

    dial idol predicted the girl who sings like Reba had a higher percentage than Hollie but it was the Reba wannabe who got eliminated before Hollie. Too close to call between Joshua and Jessica. I like Jessica better. Joshua is to Fantasia for me.

    • Jessica

      That’s correct, Skylar Laine was indeed voted off before Hollie. There was something really weird going on with Hollie’s DialIdol stats, seemingly. We’ll all have to wait and see tonight who goes home; it’s not even totally outside the bounds of possibility that it will be Phillip, though if I were laying money I definitely would not bet on him to go.

  • John Santos

    Just to correct. The dialidol rankings did not include Hawaii. I spent another hour looking at dialidol after West coast voting ended. What you see on their website is the exact numbers I saw maybe 15-20 minutes after voting in West Coast ended. I don’t think that even includes the last hour at Alaska and DEFINITELY DID NOT INCLUDE HAWAII. Ask them if you don’t believe me. I’ve noticed that for a while that Hawaii is not included and dialidol doesn’t track anymore after West Coast voting ends, so I jotted down the numbers last night.

    • Reuben

      Very interesting, ok, I will correct the post. Thanks

  • Julia

    Hmmm!!! Not too many people like screaming , I love it. When you scream it takes you to another level and people get excited. That’s why I love Patti Le belle , she took it to another level….. So I love Josh Ledet.

  • The Bob

    Hmmmm, screaming here right now and it’s not good. Well, maybe it is; maybe I can be the next Idol.

  • DaveyJ

    So the prediciton was that Jessica was the most likely to go home last night with the highest “Probability of Elimination” score, correct? Yet, she received the most amount of votes??????? (everyone knows that the first person sent to safety received the most amount of votes) I looks like the formula is a little skewed. Also, counting last night, Phillips has now been in the bottom two twice. You state that he has never been in the bottom two. doh!

    • Reuben

      Explain how you know where Phil was in the voting,

      • Jessica

        (here’s a hint: you don’t! “everyone” knows lots of things that are false, e.g. that deoxygenated blood is blue)

        • DaveyJ

          I saw an interview a few years back with Ryan Seacrest. The question was asked and he stated that the first person sent to safety received the highest votes. If you pay attention to different outlets, polls, dial idol, etc. you can pretty much guess who exactly will be sent to safety first. Jessica polls at least 2X over Phillip and 3X over Joshua. Since the Top 7 fiasco, she has never been in the bottom 3.

          • Reuben

            I’d like to see that. Do you have a reference, or remember where you saw it? If true, why doesn’t Dialidol display that? It would be a boon to their sampling model.

          • Reuben

            From Wikipedia: “The most popular contestants are usually not revealed in the results show, instead typically the three contestants (two in later rounds) who received the lowest number of votes are called to the center of the stage. One of these three is sent to safety, the two remaining however need not both be ones with the fewest votes.” if what you say were true, it would change how I think about this problem a lot. I can find no reference to it, though, even on the official Idol forums.

          • Reuben

            As far I can tell, this is false. Quote from Nigel: “After the votes are collected and tabulated by AT&T and the show’s survey firm, Telescope, “all we’re told at the end of the day is, ‘Here are the Bottom 3,’ ” he says. “And we make whatever we can out of that and turn it into a show.” Source: