There is no direct historical precedent for this week. Jessica Sanchez has pulled nearly even with Joshua Ledet on Dialidol overnight, indicating that there were perhaps a ton of votes for her on the west coast*. She still barely trails Joshua In order to get around this, we could force both Jessica and Joshua to be second on Dialidol, which produces the following standings:
| Contestant | WNTS Rating (avg.) | Dialidol Rank | Bottom 3 Previously? | Previous Rating | Probability of Elimination (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jessica Sanchez | 45.7 | 2 | Yes | 74.5 | 45.8 |
| Joshua Ledet | 54.7 | 2 | Yes | 69.0 | 31.7 |
| Phillip Phillips | 61.0 | 1 | No | 63.5 | 22.4 |
The closest possible analog for this week is Season 5, where Elliott Yamin trailed Katharine McPhee by 0.5 points on the Dialidol scale. He was eliminated. In Season 8, Danny Gokey trailed Kris Allen by 0.89 on Dialidol, and was eliminated.
Take it for what it’s worth, but the official call is Jessica Sanchez will be eliminated.
If you’re wondering how Phil’s chances have gone up, the reason is that the standings have to be normalized to 100%. If any of the contestants has their elimination probability drastically reduced, people with lower probabilities have theirs increased. I don’t think Phil is actually at risk.
*Originally this post stated that Hawaii’s votes are included in Dialidol numbers. Reader John Santos has pointed out that Dialidol closes off its voting after the Pacific time voting elapses. I still think that votes from Hawaii are important for Jessica, but not necessarily to the Dialidol figure.
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