Top 3 preliminary prediction

Note: These numbers are preliminary. I will update in the morning.

Contestant WNTS Rating (avg.) Dialidol Rank Bottom 3 Previously? Previous Rating Probability of
Elimination (%)
Jessica Sanchez 45.7 3 Yes 74.5 71.54
Joshua Ledet 54.7 2 Yes 69.0 26.18
Phillip Phillips 61.0 1 No 63.5 2.28

The west coast is going to determine how this works out tonight.

As of 12:40 EDT, Jessica Sanchez is trailing Joshua Ledet on Dialidol, and it’s not particularly close. Dialidol has predicted the outcome of the Top 3 wrong only once.

That being said, Jessica’s base is in the west coast. If Californians and Hawaiians succeed in pushing her over Joshua, her elimination chances will drop to only 37%, whereas Joshua’s will skyrocket to 87%.

Honestly, the approval ratings calculated by WNTS during the Top 3 have proven to be totally meaningless to the outcome of this round. There is barely any evidence in the data that it even matters. If American Idol is a popularity contest, that really starts to show in the Top 3.

Although I do not take into account VoteFair in the quantitative model, they have been quite good this year, with a 36% accuracy in projecting eliminated contestants and 67% accuracy in guessing the Bottom 3. However, they did not correctly predict that Jessica was the bottom-vote-getter in the Top 7, because Jessica Sanchez has led every single vote on VoteFair ballot the entire year! That is, Votefair is seemingly not capturing the voting on that, and some have attributed that to a large group of Filipinos stuffing the ballot box. This is plausible, so I would take Votefair’s projection with a grain of salt this week.

If Jessica is still last on Dialidol when I wake up in the morning, it looks like we’re having an all-male finale.

Bookmark the permalink.
  • DaveyJ

    Wow!!!!! These numbers were totally accurate.