The internet is underrating Jessica Sanchez’s chances

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Right now many experts have selected Phil Phillips as the next American Idol. I’ve seen the sentiment expressed by MJ of mjsbigblog, by IdolBlogLive, by at least one member of each of the Idol Radio Show and FarmvilleRant Radio. And, of course, Dialidol. Intrade still has Phil at 80%.

I am not longer convinced that it should be nearly as high.

Yes, Dialidol has never been wrong about a finale. But I agree with what people have said: Dialidol has underestimated the Hawaii vote. I also think that within the margin of error, there’s a very good possibility that Dialidol has gotten lucky on the two calls that they’ve made where it wasn’t a landslide.

In short, I think I’m saying that it’s close to even odds. Anybody saying otherwise is being overconfident in Phil’s chances, perhaps specifically because of Dialidol.

Zabasearch, which does not have great accuracy this year but is OK, has projected Jessica to win. I have no idea how close it was, so I have no idea how confident to be in their results. But as one more indicator, it pushes the needle away from Phil at least a little bit, doesn’t it?

80% is too high for Phil. Maybe Phil has a 60% chance, and no more. The internet pundits seem to be 100% behind Phil, and I think that’s kind of crazy.

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  • tyler

    Ur wrong sry Phillip has it so if u don’t like the result from what everybody else said then Get over it he is the favorite and is going to win go look at dialidol he won so bye

  • sal

    dialidol went to sleep 8pm hawaiian time. The meter didn’t change a single digit. Basing the winner on dialidol is not reliable.

    • Jessica

      Yeah that was a really weird and bad decision on Dialidol’s part

  • Pinoy

    Everybody would just been guessing then since we don’t even know the actual voting. Will this be a cause for manipulation to decide the winner as the producer wants it? In this case results would be doubtful whether ohilips or jessica wins. While i voted for jessica, it would be uphill against philips. The production no. for one yesterday was clearly biased for philips with the drum beaters, dancers, etc. Was there an intention to push him? And was the news item about his medical problem another way to get sympathy? Your guess is as good as mine.

  • Marky

    I am pretty sure Jessica Sanchez is American Idol Season 11. Never underestimate the Filipinos who are really very supportive to another talent with Filipino root. This is the same case for the victory in Miss Universe (Ms. Photogenic) or the New 7 Wonders of Nature (Puerto Princessa) where voting really matters.

    Filipinos is 2nd to Chinese in terms of race in the US. That’s really a lot.

  • Pinoy

    As predicted. No latino or asian can be an american idol winner.