Hollywood Week is a week away, the new season is almost upon us, and we’re busy tooling up for season 12. I just wanted to preview what’s going on.
My emphasis this year, as opposed to prior years, is going to be to provide a real prediction model. This will be fully (painfully, perhaps) detailed in an article to come. The short version is that a lot of effort went into crafting a much more robust, hopefully much more accurate statistical model for week-to-week predictions of who the bottom 3 will be, with good error estimation to quantify how much uncertainty there is.
I’ve also built a horserace tracking model that is quite good at predicting who will make the Top 3, which is much less noise prone than the week-to-week predicitons. Finally, a similar model to that for the finals has been built for the semi-finals, and I’ll be tracking the tangible variables that go into this model throughout the audition episodes.
I’m switching the blog over to Disqus for commenting. My hope is that this will have some effect on the level of discourse and require less moderation. There may be some hiccups with this, so let us know on our Facebook or Twitter if something is awry.
I’ve also incorporated JQPlot into the site, which will provide not only really spiffy plots, but also ones that are interactive and more informative. Again, if these plots don’t render correctly, please let us know.