| Name | Song | WNTS | DI | VF | Not-safe Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Finch | I Believe | 24 | 0 | 2 | 0.407 |
| Janelle Arthur | Gone | 43 | 0.544 | 2 | 0.383 |
| Paul Jolley | Amazed | 47 | 0.563 | 3 | 0.367 |
| Burnell Taylor | Flying Without Wings | 50 | 0 | 4 | 0.358 |
| Devin Velez | Temporary Home | 46 | 0.563 | 6 | 0.336 |
| Lazaro Arbos | Breakaway | 31 | 5.171 | 5 | 0.326 |
| Amber Holcomb | A Moment Like This | 71 | 0.139 | 10 | 0.276 |
| Kree Harrison | Crying | 64 | 0.515 | 14 | 0.244 |
| Candice Glover | I (Who Have Nothing) | 89 | 0.417 | 14 | 0.226 |
| Angela Miller | I Surrender | 68 | 3.266 | 41 | 0.078 |
(Updated: 9:33am on 3-14-2013 with final numbers.)
Names in green are predicted safe. Names in red are predicted in the bottom 3. Names in yellow are undecided. Any person not in green is not considered safe by the model. The most probable bottom 3 is Curtis, Janelle, and Paul. However, anybody on the list (except Angie) being in the bottom 3 would not be shocking.
The contestants the model thinks are safe are notable in that they are nearly all women. Devin Velez Lazaro Arbos,, is the least of all his male cohorts. Indeed, it was a great night for women, and only so-so for men. My feeling during the liveblog was that Devin did enough, and the numbers bear that out [Update: Devin has been moved into uncertain territory]. Candice, Kree, Amber, and Angie are predicted safe even at the 95% confidence level.
Curtis Finch isn’t looking good. He was second least popular on Votefair, had a zero on Dialidol, and was also last on WNTS. He’s the official pick to go home, and I’m comfortable with that given my feeling and the numbers. However, people in his position were still safe 60% of the time. Janelle and Paul were people who I thought squeaked by in the semifinals, and so, again, I’m pretty comfortable with them as picks.
The model weighs WNTS and Votefair more heavily than Dialidol this early in the year. As time goes by, the situation reverses itself, and Dialidol becomes dominant. We are far from that point, and the low score that Amber got on Dialidol I don’t think should worry anyone too much.
The fact that the semifinals model was flawless this year gives no indication that the finals model will be as well. The finals model is always less accurate, as it works off a much smaller data set and smaller set of variables. I fully expect one or two of these calls to be wrong.
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