Top 9 Prediction (final)

Name Song WNTS DialIdol VoteFair Not-safe Probability
Paul Jolley Eleanor Rigby 39 1.535 1 0.481
Burnell Taylor Let It Be 51 1.776 2 0.445
Lazaro Arbos In My Life 11 0.951 7 0.432
Devin Velez The Long And Winding Road 50 2.732 3 0.420
Janelle Arthur I Will 69 0.371 7 0.363
Amber Holcomb She’s Leaving Home 54 0.493 9 0.352
Kree Harrison With A Little Help From My Friends 77 1.170 18 0.217
Candice Glover Come Together 80 1.869 19 0.201
Angie Miller Yesterday 68 5.993 34 0.089

(Compiled with preliminary Dialidol and Votefair numbers. I will update in the morning.)

(Updated 9:26 am)


The methodology for the finals model is described here. The model is 87% accurate on ranking within a margin of error of +/- 3%. Probabilities being what they are, somebody with a not-safe probability of just 0.25 will be in the bottom 3 one out of four times. Please do not comment that the numbers are wrong. They are probabilities, not certainties or even claims. Do not gamble based on these numbers.

Names in green are predicted safe. Names in red are predicted in the bottom 3. Names in yellow are undecided. Any person not in green is not considered safe by the model. The most probable bottom 3 is Paul, Devin, and Burnell. However, anybody on the list (except Angie) being in the bottom 3 would not be shocking. That being said, the model projects Kree, Candice, and Angie are safe at the 95% confidence level.

I’m happy that Janelle just made it on to the list of people considered safe. Though no fan of country, I loved her rendition of I Will. Lazaro Devin is just too close to call [after updating the numbers, Devin and Lazaro swapped places].

In any case, we have probably the clearest dichotomy of male/female scores ever. All 4 of the highest probabilities are men, all the lowest are women. Angie continues to be heavily favored, despite what I thought to be an underwhelming outing this week. Paul and Devin were in the bottom 3 last week, and I think (and the model concurs) they will be again this week. Update: Devin has been moved into uncertain territory.

I get the feeling that we’re kind of in a holding pattern while we burn off some of these cannon fodder men. What a better show this would have been if we had 6 or even 7 women in the Top 10. Other than Lazaro, I don’t know that I’ve seen a lot of popular sentiment toward any of the men.

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  • Burnell is still my favorite contestant…. Really rooting for him!!