Top 3 tracker after the Top 8: Janelle rises, Angie falls, and the men fall even farther

Analysis after the jump.

Though Angie is still heavily favored, she fell considerably this week to an 83%, down 10 points from last week. The only contestant in her class not to make the Top 3 was Siobahn Magnus, but if you can provide such an example, there’s certainly a chance. As for the other likely Top 3 members, Kree rose 4 points, while Candice stayed steady.

Janelle made a huge leap on her version of Keep Me Hangin’ On, rising 14 points to a 26% chance. If she can continue this momentum, she will have a good shot. Amber, back from the Bottom 3 last week, rose 10 to 39%.

Both remaining men are in single digits, and both fell even further this week. Nobody in their position has ever made it.

The Top 3 Tracker in this round (nominally round 6, so that it matches up with previous Top 7 years) makes use of an averaging scheme to provide a less noisy picture of the contest. For historical context, here are the average round 5 and round 6 not-safe probabilities plotted against whether or not the person made the Top 3 (if the dot is at the top (1) then he or she did make the Top 3, and if it’s near the bottom (0) he or she did not. Some vertical jitter has been introduced to make the dots visible.).

Hover your cursor over the points to see which past contestants they correspond to. The only people ever who did not advance with an average value of less than 0.3 were Siobahn Magnus, James Durbin, and Jason Castro. The other 13 people below this threshold all made the Top 3. Amber is slightly above this.

The only person to ever make it with an average above 0.4 was Syesha Mercado. Both Burnell and Lazaro are far above this number, so historically speaking they are highly unlikely to make it. None of the 18 other people above 0.4 made the Top 3.