Top 7 post-game

There’s no good way to score tonight, since the bottom 2 rather than 3 was revealed. We know that either Amber or Candice would have been in the bottom 3, but not which. The most probable person to be eliminated, Burnell, was. Janelle appeared in the bottom 3. Lazaro did not in the extreme: he was in the top 3.

A few weeks back, when the first top 3 ever was revealed, I wondered aloud about how volatile the voting can be. Tonight we saw an example of it being pretty volatile indeed. Last week we saw Lazaro go from at best 6th place to this week being at least 3rd place. That means he jumped at least 3 positions and at most 6 positions in the vote standings.

This suggests a couple things. First, if someone goes from having a maligned song (last week) to a relatively well-praised one (this week), the voting can change a lot. I would argue this is a good thing in a singing competition. Second, it means that Lazaro can absolutely be eliminated next week.

Here is a list of all Top 6 eliminations:

Season Contestant Bottom group
Bottom group
previous week?
1 Christina Christian Yes No
2 Carmen Rasmussen Yes Yes
3 John Stevens Yes No
4 Constantine Maroulis No No
5 Kellie Pickler No No
6 Phil Stacey Yes No
6 Chris Richardson Yes No
7 Carly Smithson Yes No
9 Siobhan Magnus No No
10 Casey Abrams Yes No
11 Elise Testone Yes Yes

Note that two contestants were eliminated in season 6’s Top 6 and season 8 had no Top 6.

A majority (6/11) were people who were safe in the Top 7 but had been in the bottom 3 before. Only 2/11 followed a bottom 3 appearance with being eliminated, and 3/11 were totally unexpected eliminations. So, if you’re pining for a Lazaro exit, there’s no reason yet to despair.

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