Analysis after the jump.
By its very nature, the probability of getting into the Top 3 should rise each round simply because there are fewer competitors. It’s telling, then, that nearly all of the contestants have flatlined. Angie, Kree, Janelle, and Lazaro had very little change since last week. Candice fell 5 points to 64%. These results conspired to boost the chances of Amber, who’s now jumped almost 30 points since her low in the bottom 3, and up 18 points since last week. Candice’s fall made it so Kree is now the second most likely, and indeed Candice was revealed not to be in the Top 3.
Since there are now 4 contestants doing so well, one of them not making it will be “unusual” historically. They will join Siobahn Magnus, James Durbin, and Jason Castro as people who seemed sure to make it, but didn’t. Lazaro is now in the territory of Syesha Mercado, who seemed unlikely to make it, but did. That is, there is historical precedent for someone like Lazaro making the Top 3. That said, it is still quite unlikely, with only about a 5% chance.
The Top 3 Tracker in this round (nominally round 7, so that it matches up with previous Top 6 years) makes use of an averaging scheme to provide a less noisy picture of the contest. For historical context, here are the average round 6 and round 7 not-safe probabilities plotted against whether or not the person made the Top 3 (if the dot is at the top (1) then he or she did make the Top 3, and if it’s near the bottom (0) he or she did not. Some vertical jitter has been introduced to make the dots visible.).
Hover your cursor over the points to see which past contestants they correspond to. The only people ever who did not advance with an average value of less than 0.39 were Siobahn Magnus, James Durbin, and Jason Castro. The other 13 people below this threshold all made the Top 3.
The only person to ever make it with an average above 0.43 was Syesha Mercado. Lazaro, as stated above, is now in this range. None of the 20 other people above 0.420 made the Top 3.