Top 6 prediction (final)

Name Song WNTS
DialIdol VoteFair Not-safe Probability
Janelle Arthur I’ll Never Fall in Love Again/
The Dance
45 0.957 7 0.570
Lazaro Arbos Close to You/
7.5 3.519 7 0.467
Amber Holcomb I Say A Little Prayer/
Love On Top
55 2.492 10 0.433
Kree Harrison What the World Needs Now/
Help Me Make it Through the Night
70 2.951 20 0.244
Angie Miller Anyone who had a Heart/
Love Came Down
47.5 2.559 28 0.166
Candice Glover Don’t Make Me Over/
90 4.623 28 0.119

(Final update 3:19PM EST)
(Updated 10:48 EST)


The methodology for the finals model is described here. The model is 87% accurate on ranking within a margin of error of +/- 3%. Probabilities being what they are, somebody with a not-safe probability of just 0.25 will be in the bottom 3 one out of four times. Please do not comment that the numbers are wrong. They are probabilities, not certainties or even claims. Do not gamble based on these numbers.

Update: No change in the calls. However, for the first time, Angie is not the least likely to be not-safe, based on Candice’s huge rise.

Original post:

Names in green are predicted safe. Names in red are the most likely bottom 2. Names in yellow are undecided. Any person not in green is not considered safe by the model. The most probable bottom 2 is Janelle and Lazaro, However, anybody on the list being in the bottom 2 would not be shocking.

Dialidol shows Lazaro pulling second place, and at this stage of the contest it’s not a good idea to ignore Dialidol. This by itself isn’t enough to say Lazaro is doing fine. In fact, his other numbers are terrible. But considering historical factors, he’s not the most likely to be voted off.

That honor goes to Janelle, I’m afraid, and by quite a large margin. This would not be surprising, absent Lazaro’s performance tonight, since Janelle has twice found herself in the bottom group, and Lazaro only once. I don’t feel like the judges gave enough of a full-throated denouncement of Lazaro, but even if they had he appears to have some rabid voters on his side.

Factoring in the margin of error, in fact, the model can’t really decide between Lazaro and Amber as being in the bottom group.

I pray the most likely to be voted off isn’t. There’s still a good probability Lazaro is gone. It’s just not something I would necessarily count on.

I have no idea what has made the staff at WhatNotToSing this damned irascible. They are so bothered by this season that they’re threatening to quit Idol statistics altogether. Maybe they’re going just on the numbers, but I recently watched season 2 again for an upcoming retrospective video, and this season is way better than that. If that site does indeed choose to stop collecting their statistics, I will have to find some alternative for judging performance quality. It seems a peculiar fit of pique over what is at worst an average season.

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