Top 5 prediction (final)

  By ,
Name Song DialIdol VoteFair
Janelle Arthur When I Call Your Name/
Dumb Blonde		 38 0.636 5 0.633
Amber Holcomb Without You/
What Are You Doing The Rest of Your Life?		 55.5 6.143 9 0.401
Kree Harrison She Talks To Angels/
Have You Ever Been In Love?		 65.5 3.614 18 0.376
Candice Glover Straight Up/
When You Believe		 69.5 1.135 28 0.347
Angie Miller I’ll Stand by You/
Halo		 62 1.934 40 0.244

Final update: no change in calls.

Important!

The methodology for the finals model is described here. The model is 87% accurate on ranking within a margin of error of +/- 3%. Probabilities being what they are, somebody with a not-safe probability of just 0.25 will be in the bottom 3 one out of four times. Please do not comment that the numbers are wrong. They are probabilities, not certainties or even claims. Do not gamble based on these numbers.

Names in green are predicted safe. Names in red are the most likely bottom 2. Names in yellow are undecided. Any person not in green is not considered safe by the model. The most probable bottom 2 is . However, anybody on the list being in the bottom 2 would not be shocking.

There seems to be the sentiment that the save will definitely be used tomorrow, and now that I see that the finale is scheduled for May 15, I suppose that’s probably true. That would mean this week is a bye, and that’s just a shame. I don’t know that a week where there’s no possibility of elimination is likely to draw too much attention.

For whatever they’re worth, there are no surprises in the above numbers, as they are consistent with what’s been happening the whole time. Janelle was pretty much declared the one the judges want to be voted off (or saved, as the case may be). Kree Harrison is not safe within the margin of error, so there could be a surprise there, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Candice may gain ground by tomorrow afternoon, as she did last week, and overtake Angie as the least likely to be in the bottom 2, but she didn’t have nearly the standout performance that she did last week, and Angie somewhat bounced back from a 3 week slump.

I’m a bit surprised by Amber’s standing on Dialidol. Just last week she was dead last on that service’s prediction, and tonight she’s way out in front, something that I find weird but possible.

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  • Victor

    At this point I think the only one the judges will not save is Janelle. Amber should really be part of the top 3. I think I know America’s problem why she’s not. Jazz! Win or loose I pray that she becomes a great Jazz Artist.

    • Agreed. Janelle should not be saved.

  • tjlealand3 .

    there is not longer a save, that ended last week…..

  • @google-822b1fea130da6323505db449249ac7b:disqus
    I thought so as well (I thought it had to be used before the Top 5).
    But Fox released a schedule that says the Top 4 perform on May 1. That
    means that either someone has to be saved tonight or the Top 4 will
    perform twice. Unless the producers are just screwing with us.

    • jessica_dennis

      It’s really unclear. I believe the verbiage when it was announced was “until the top 5” — which doesn’t make it clear whether it can or can’t be used *in* the top 5. Possibly they left themselves that wiggle-room on purpose. I guess we’ll find out, if they save someone tonight.

      But doesn’t Seacrest always sorta remind us that no one can be saved, when no one can be saved? Did he say anything last night about a contestant who “might be facing elimination” like he’s been doing?

  • Nance Lee

    I really thought the save was gone – hope so! And hope Janelle is the one going home tonight.

    My top three for a long time has been Amber, Candice and Kree. If it gets that far, then I am gonna have trouble deciding who is my favorite!