Top 5 post-game

Janelle heads home, as predicted. Kree and Amber were quite close in the prediction, but it was a bit of a surprise to see Kree in the bottom 2 (though the model refused to call her safe, so there was reason to worry).

For anyone curious, at the beginning of this season I had to make a judgement call. The model’s parameters are tweaked so that a Top 12 was progressively winnowed to a winner. But this year there was only a Top 10. So the question is: do you count the Top 10 as round 3 or do you count it as round 1? But there’s no way to answer this question on an empirical basis, since there hasn’t been a Top 10 (except in season 1, but the model only considers seasons 5 and later). My reasoning was that the the voting works on calcification of voting patterns, and that those patterns just take time to emerge, regardless of the number of contestants. So I ran it as if the Top 10 was round 1.

Tonight provided a test, but the answer was inconclusive. If I had run the numbers as if this was the 8th final round, Janelle would still have been last, but next would be Candice, and that isn’t correct either. That is, if Dialidol (which had Amber 1st) is given more weight, it sends Candice (who was second-lowest on Dialidol) into the bottom 2, so there was no improving the ranking accuracy by tweaking parameters.

Now, of course, we have to wonder what the show is going to do for the extra week. A lot of people (including myself, eventually) were wrong that the save was a cinch. Perhaps a filler or charity show, or maybe the finale just gets moved up (this is doubtful, since they have likely scheduled a number of famous acts already for that week).

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