Top 4 prediction (final)

Name Song DialIdol VoteFair
Candice Glover Find Your Love/
58 4.667 18 0.577
Kree Harrison It Hurts So Bad/
A White Shade of Pale
50.5 4.053 27 0.560
Amber Holcomb The Power of Love/
MacArthur Park
41 6.218 10 0.507
Angie Miller Who You Are/
Cry Me A River
70 4.448 46 0.357

Final update 4:04PM EST.

Updated 8:16AM EST: Some pretty big movement overnight. Candice is still the most likely, but Kree moved into danger and Amber moved into uncertain territory.


The methodology for the finals model is described here. The model is 87% accurate on ranking within a margin of error of +/- 3%. Probabilities being what they are, somebody with a not-safe probability of just 0.25 will be in the bottom 2 one out of four times. Please do not comment that the numbers are wrong. They are probabilities, not certainties or even claims. Do not gamble based on these numbers.

Names in green are predicted safe. Names in red are the most likely bottom 3. Names in yellow are undecided. Any person not in green is not considered safe by the model. The most probable bottom 2 is Candice and Amber. However, anybody on the list being in the bottom 2 would not be shocking.

Original post:

I know, I know, I don’t believe it either.

What events would conspire to convince the model that Candice could possibly be in jeopardy? She had a high performance approval, and decent Dialidol numbers. But while Amber and Kree had sagging numbers on at least one index, they also have an indicator of strength in another. Kree had a bad Dialidol score, but is quite popular on the voting on Votefair. Amber has very low popularity on Votefair, and quite bad performance approval, but had the highest Dialidol score.

Candice and Amber are basically in a tie, but it would be strange if Kree were not voted off, no? She was in the bottom group last week and got what passes for bad reviews tonight from the judges. Nevertheless, history would dictate that Kree is safe. If Votefair readjusts by tomorrow, this could change, of course, so I will update. [Amber gained overnight, and is now ahead of Candice by about 7 points]

Angie continues to look like the front runner. She topped two indices, though she was third in Dialidol. I’m not clear on why her numbers are sagging on Dialidol, but the model hedges against that index even at this point in the contest.

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