|Candice Glover||When I Was Your Man/
|Kree Harrison||See You Again/
Someone To Watch Over Me
|Amber Holcomb||Just Give Me A Reason/
My Funny Valentine
Final update 2:50 PM EST. No ranking changes.
Updated 10:46 AM EST. Angie gained a bit, and Kree fell, so they swapped positions.
Names in green are predicted safe. Names in red are the most likely bottom 2. Names in yellow are undecided. Any person not in green is not considered safe by the model. The most probable bottom 2 is Candice and
Angie Kree. However, anybody on the list being in the bottom 2 would not be shocking. [updated: Angie no longer 2nd most probable, Kree is. It’s still basically a tie.]
Sorry to do this folks, but there’s no firm prediction possible based on the preliminary numbers. Amber, Kree, and Angie are running what amounts to a dead heat as far as the model can tell, and so it can’t make any safe calls. Nobody is far-and-away winning this race.
However, for the second week in a row, the model thinks Candice is the most at risk of elimination. She was in the bottom 2 last week, so I can certainly see it happening. Amber would be the one my gut would pick, but the model chooses her as the least likely, mainly on the strength of her Dialidol number, which is significant. If you’ve read the methodology post, you know that Dialidol becomes a stronger indicator as the year goes on, whereas WNTS and Votefair become less predictive with each passing week.
As perverse as it might seem, this prediction is independent of the Top 3 Tracker, which takes a longer view of the season. In a sense, the T3T is not sensitive to week-to-week shocks. As such, it would say that Amber is gone. However, based just on tonight’s numbers, Candice is.
Note that I haven’t a clue how I would take into account the two weeks’ votes being pooled. These numbers are based purely on tonight; since Candice was the highest probability in both weeks, that’s unambiguous that she would be the most likely.
Two things to ponder. 1. Amber was first on Dialidol last week and this week, and was nonetheless in the bottom 2 last week. 2. Angie was
last third on Dialidol last week, but we know she was in the top 2. If Dialidol is very different from previous years, of course, the model will be way off. However, the model was correct in calling Angie safe last week, so the other factors do matter. Take it for what it’s worth.