Top 3 post-game

  By ,

Sometimes models go against your gut because they’re wrong, but sometimes the reverse is true. As hard as it was to believe, the data pointed to Angie’s departure. Though she was hugely popular on Votefair, that index isn’t nearly as reliable as Dialidol in this round, which is why Dialidol factors heavily into the model’s predictions in the Top 3.

The model’s ranking accuracy in the Top 3 rises to 75% (6 out of 8 correct). As I said in the Top 3 Tracker methodology, it’s quite hard to predict what happens in the Top 3 early on, even though it’s pretty simple to determine who the Top 3 will be. All year the Top 3 Tracker had Angie, Candice, and Kree as the most likely Top 3. Angie always appeared on top.

The closest historical analog to this situation was Danny Gokey. Like Angie, he appeared to be headed for the finale in the early rounds. But his support suddenly flagged in the Top 3, and out he went. Angie’s Dialidol numbers had been low for weeks, indicating that while she may be popular, she didn’t draw rabid voting in the way Kree and Candice did.

However, if you want to credit one thing for sinking Angie, it was perhaps the judges and the documentary-length home visit clips of the week. Kree’s was heart rending and Candice’s uplifting. The judges lavished praise on Candice (not that she necessarily didn’t deserved it) in a way that they did not for Angie.

I’ll have an overview of the model’s accuracy this year coming within the week, but it’s been a pretty decent run.

Bookmark the permalink.
  • Reecepieces

    As most people agree, American Idol is fixed and I personally will no longer watch a show that has obvious and flagrant vote fixing. There is just no way that she would lose that many votes in just a week. Also, the only reason they came up with that lame excuse to not eliminate anyone and add one week’s votes to the next is because Candice would have more than likely been the one to go home. AI’s ratings are steadily going down hill and with this huge controversy it spells the coming end of American Idol. Angie has the most followers on Facebook, twitter, and instagram as well as the most likes on the YouTube videos of her songs from the show. Those numbers plus your stats as well prove that Idol’s votes are fixed.

    • Mark Casper

      To follow comments on AI forums, one must wade through half the posts spouting 3 constant themes. And Wow. You hit all three of these moronic topics in just one post.

      1) Even though I’m such a devoted follower of AI that I was on this site at 3am EST to post this comment … Even though I was probably one of the goofs that said I’ll never watch again because of Jennifer, or Doughtry, or Pia, or whomever… Please believe me … This Time … I’m out???

      2) It’s rigged … it’s fixed … it’s per-ordained. There should be an alternative voting process. They should just call me … Jay Reece … up after the last singer finishes. I AM the true voice of America after all.

      3) AI’s ratings have fallen … from the highest rated show to the 2nd highest rated show last year and may fall to 3rd or 4th this year … out of over a hundred shows. At this rate, it will be cancelled around 2030. Have fun waiting.

      Here is what I think …

      I said last year that only Colton and PP would sell records. I still think that should be the goal?

      As much as the judges were pushing Candice and trying to push (out) Kree, they have this part backwards.

      Angie will sell some records early, then fade.

      Candice will not be a star ever.

      Kree will have the best career – easy – and she will sell records to
      place her in the top 5 of all-time Idol contestants when all is said and
      done.

      I voted for Kree and thought Angie should have made it. But I understand Candice getting enough votes.

      • Chris

        It really depends on if they sign major deals and what the label makes them do. But I also don’t think any of th will be huge sellers. IMO

      • Matthew Richards

        History has shown that female winners sell the most records. By that logic, whoever wins this season will sell the most records due to the excitement of having a female winner again, and whoever is the runner-up will probably sell as well as Diana Degarmo did.

    • Matthew Richards

      Or maybe, just maybe, Candice got tons of votes because she sang the best? And Kree outdid Angie because she gave the most emotional performance of the night? They really didn’t need to fix the votes. Angie was probably the producers’ favorite contestant, to be honest.

  • For years now, there have been conspiracy theories about voting on AI, but the one voting pattern that seems to be unmistakable is that most of the viewer support comes from the American South which favors contestants from south of the Mason-Dixon line. Angie is from the American Northeast which doesn’t vote in suufficient numbers to back its candidates. That said, Candice put in the best virtuoso performances of the night, while Cree projected the most emotion, vunerability, humility, and empathy, which may be innate or due to her tragic family background.