Sometimes models go against your gut because they’re wrong, but sometimes the reverse is true. As hard as it was to believe, the data pointed to Angie’s departure. Though she was hugely popular on Votefair, that index isn’t nearly as reliable as Dialidol in this round, which is why Dialidol factors heavily into the model’s predictions in the Top 3.
The model’s ranking accuracy in the Top 3 rises to 75% (6 out of 8 correct). As I said in the Top 3 Tracker methodology, it’s quite hard to predict what happens in the Top 3 early on, even though it’s pretty simple to determine who the Top 3 will be. All year the Top 3 Tracker had Angie, Candice, and Kree as the most likely Top 3. Angie always appeared on top.
The closest historical analog to this situation was Danny Gokey. Like Angie, he appeared to be headed for the finale in the early rounds. But his support suddenly flagged in the Top 3, and out he went. Angie’s Dialidol numbers had been low for weeks, indicating that while she may be popular, she didn’t draw rabid voting in the way Kree and Candice did.
However, if you want to credit one thing for sinking Angie, it was perhaps the judges and the documentary-length home visit clips of the week. Kree’s was heart rending and Candice’s uplifting. The judges lavished praise on Candice (not that she necessarily didn’t deserved it) in a way that they did not for Angie.
I’ll have an overview of the model’s accuracy this year coming within the week, but it’s been a pretty decent run.