Top 3 prediction

  By ,
Name Song DialIdol VoteFair
Angie Miller Sorry Seems to be the Hardest Word/
Try/Maybe		 57.333 3.799 45 0.382
Candice Glover One/Next To Me/
Somewhere		 64.333 6.581 34 0.309
Kree Harrison Perfect/
Here Comes Goodbye/
Better Dig Two		 49 8.664 20 0.309

Updated 11:35 AM EST. No change in ranking.

Update: NB: If you read the post below you’ll see that this year will be the second closest Top 3 in the model’s history. The only one more competitive was Elliott Yamin vs Katharine McPhee. Quite close contest this year.

Important!

The methodology for the finals model is described here. The model is 87% accurate on ranking within a margin of error of +/- 3%. Probabilities being what they are, somebody with a not-safe probability of just 0.25 will be in the bottom 3 one out of four times. Please do not comment that the numbers are wrong. They are probabilities, not certainties or even claims. Do not gamble based on these numbers.

Names in green are predicted safe. Names in red are the most likely bottom 3. Names in yellow are undecided. Any person not in green is not considered safe by the model. The most probable eliminated contestant is Angie, though none of these would be shocking.

DialIdol had a miserable failure last week, which is unusual. Typically, that index becomes more accurate as time goes by, and by the Top 4 one shouldn’t take its pronouncement lightly. Given that, Angie seems to be in trouble. As to this (official) projection, Angie had a poor Dialidol score and was in the middle on WNTS, and is thus the most likely to be eliminated based on historical factors. I would note that these numbers are fairly close to one another, and so this represents something close to a three-way tie.

However, if you are skeptical as to this call (as am I), then perhaps you will be more interested in the following “Dialidol is full of crap” projection:

Name Song DialIdol VoteFair
Kree Harrison Perfect/
Here Comes Goodbye/
Better Dig Two		 49 8.664 21 0.504
Candice Glover One/Next To Me/Somewhere 64.333 6.581 32 0.313
Angie Miller Sorry Seems to be the Hardest Word/
Try/Maybe		 57.333 3.799 47 0.183

This is obviously not the official model call, but it may match your gut more than the official one does, as it certainly does mine. The Top 3 Tracker had Kree in third place all year with the exception of one week. Given the accuracy of the T3T, I tend to think Kree is heading home.

Nonetheless, the official call is Angie as of this writing.


Reuben is the statistician and lead writer at IdolAnalytics. Follow him on Twitter. His personal site (run all year round) is IdleAnalytics.

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  • I completely agree.. Dial idol has been off all season. The margin of error is huge.. As opposed to last year when it was spot on. My gut feeling is that Kree is going home.

  • cmd121171@aol.com

    I agree I feel that Kree is going home as well. I want Angie to win so I hope she is not the one to go. I know of people who voted online all 50 votes for Angie and voted for 2 hours straight. I myself logged closed to 300 votes for Angie she has a huge following I can’t see her going home. This model does not take into account people voting online and texting though so there is always a margin of error.

    • 110% agree as well! Amber was leading dial idol for two weeks str8 during the top 4, n look, she got eliminated. Last season, skylar laine got eliminated top 5 when she also lead dial idol as well. I voted on my cell/house phone for two hours str8 about 800 times for angie, it is her destiny to take that crown, n all she needs to do is make the top 2 m perform her song m that seals the deal!! It’s about time that someone very current like her wins, n she will make history by being the first winner from the northeast, instead of having another countless winber from the south!

  • As much as Kree’s story is touching, she still will have a famed future ahead of her since i believe she will be the one to go tomorrow as well. . .

  • Matthew Richards

    Even though I feel Candice and Kree gave the best performances last night, I don’t think Angie is going home. She has too much of a following from the entire season to be eclipsed by Kree having one quite good performance. What I am afraid of is that Candice is going to be Melinda Dolittled–that is, everyone will assume that she’s safe, and send just enough votes for Angie to get her past Kree (or just enough votes for Kree to get her past Angie). Either way, I sent all my votes to Candice, and I would be fine seeing either Candice and Kree or Candice and Angie in the finally. I would really like to see Angie sing some of her original music again; I feel like she peaked in Hollywood Week and never quite reached the heights of You Set Me Free again.

    • Matthew Richards

      Also, like other people said, I feel like Angie may have gotten a large portion of online and text votes. DialIdol seems to be very inaccurate this season compared to other seasons, and I attribute it to the fact that Ryan Seacrest has been pimping out the “SuperVote” for months.

  • bose_sucks

    Dialidol is useless now. I think the Raw score is a better measure now. My household has 4 Facebook accounts, so 200 votes went to Angie in less than 5 minutes.

  • bose_sucks

    Wow, just joined FunOfficePools, they look to be very accurate. look at their statistics report. I agree, Kree is going home tonight!

  • I ‘saw this Angie elimination coming as I posted in my performance night rankings:

    Round 01: Jimmy’s Picks

    01) Candice – One – Grade: A-

    02) Kree – Perfect – Grade: B-

    03) Angie – Sorry Seems to Be the Hardest Word – Grade: C

    Round 02: Judge’s Picks

    01) Candice – Next To Me – Grade: A+

    02) Kree – Here Comes Goodbye – Grade: B+

    03) Angie – Try – Grade: B

    Round 03: Producer’s Picks

    01) Candice – Somewhere – Grade: A

    02) Kree – Better Dig Two – Grade: B+

    02) Angie – Maybe – Grade: B+

    Based upon last night’s efforts, Angie placed last in each of the rounds.