Top 2 prediction (updated)

Name Song DialIdol VoteFair
Kree Harrison Angel /
All Cried Out /
Up To The Mountain
59.667 9.287 42 0.758
Candice Glover Chasing Pavements /
I Am Beautiful /
I (Who Have Nothing)
64 14.735 58 0.242

Updated 10:54 AM EST. Candice has expanded her lead on Dialidol, and is now called by that service as well, outside the margin of error. Dialidol tends to be cautious when it calls a contest, so this is looking better for Candice.

Important!

The methodology for the finals model is described here. The model is 87% accurate on ranking within a margin of error of +/- 3%. Probabilities being what they are, somebody with a not-safe probability of just 0.25 will be in the bottom 3 one out of four times. Please do not comment that the numbers are wrong. They are probabilities, not certainties or even claims. Do not gamble based on these numbers.

The model predicts Candice Glover will win season 12 of American Idol.

Candice is currently sweeping all major indices, and while the numbers may flit a little this way and that, unless Kree can actually switch one of them, she is unlikely to win. Mostly, though, this comes down to Dialidol, and that measurement shows Candice winning by a large margin. Without some kind of west coast surge, there’s no way I can see to do it.

Of course, Kree could win, but it would be a major upset. Candice is about 3 times likelier to take the title, at least as far as the model can tell. Note that until the model is wrong about a finale, there is some uncertainty as to its ratings (as perverse as that may sound).

You can see how the model rated past finale rounds to see if they match your gut about how those years ran. To me they fit pretty good. And based on what I saw, and based on the huge amount of high-rated performances (as rated by WNTS) that Candice has had, she looks more like a winner than Kree does (from a numerical point of view).

It’s not in the bag, but it looks good for Candice fans.


Reuben is the statistician and lead writer at IdolAnalytics. Follow him on Twitter. His personal site (run all year round) is IdleAnalytics
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