Top 13 projection (updated)

Updated 12:30PM EST

Name Song WNTS DI VF Not-safe Probability
C.J. Harris Radio 36 0 1 0.391
Ben Briley Folsom Prison Blues 42 0 1 0.384
Kristen O’Connor Beautiful Disaster 31 24 3 0.317
Dexter Roberts Aw Naw 35 0 5 0.295
Malaya Watson Runaway Baby 18 0 7 0.266
M.K. Nobilette Satisfaction 47 0 7 0.242
Emily Piriz Glitter in the Air 65 0 7 0.227
Caleb Johnson Pressure and Time 72 0.030 8 0.203
Alex Preston A Beautiful Mess 83 0 8 0.195
Jessica Meuse Crow and the Butterfly 79 0 10 0.165
Jena Irene The Scientist 58 0 11 0.163
Majesty Rose Tightrope 74 0 17 0.084
Sam Woolf Unwell 51 0 20 0.067

Important!

The methodology for the finals model is described here. The model is 87% accurate on ranking within a margin of error of +/- 3%. Probabilities being what they are, somebody with a not-safe probability of just 0.25 will be in the bottom 3 one out of four times. Please do not comment that the numbers are wrong. They are probabilities, not certainties or even claims. Do not gamble based on these numbers.

Names in green are predicted safe. Names in red are the most likely bottom 3. Names in yellow are undecided. Any person not in green is not considered safe by the model. The most probable bottom 3 is C.J., Ben, and Dexter Kristin. However, anybody on the list being in the bottom 3 would not be shocking.

Update: There was enough voting in Votefair to nudge Caleb into safe territory and Kristin into uncertain territory, but third most likely. Alex, Jena, Jessica, Majesty, and Sam look like they’re sitting pretty. Malaya is on the cusp, but still considered safe, oddly.

Also, I see over at Votefair that they have removed Dexter Roberts from the poll. The text above says that his poll can only handle 12 people, which I suppose is why the earlier results added up to more than 100%. The numbers used are from before this was done. The data are always normalized before being fed into the model, so that’s not an issue.

(Initial post at 12:30 AM EST)

I think the call I’m most suspicious of is that of Malaya Watson. Nobody really liked Watson’s performance, but her popularity on Votefair is considerable, and Votefair is fairly predictive at this early stage in the game. If I were less scrupulous, I would probably nudge her into yellow when nobody was looking. Possibly, as more people vote in that poll, others will gain at her expense. I will keep monitoring.

I’m quite concerned about Dialidol altogether. The site is barely registering on Caleb, huge on Kristen, and zero for all other contestants. Measuring zero isn’t really measuring. Fortunately, at this early stage the model doesn’t give Dialidol much credit.

Three men as the bottom 3? Before last year, that would have seemed crazy. Women have, generally speaking, filed out at the beginning of the year. In Season 12, though, no woman was eliminated until the Top 5, though Janelle Arthur did end up in the bottom 3 in the Top 7 round. Has the worm turned? I’m not convinced.

As an experiment, I polled several live blogs of tonight’s show and calculated an approval rating of my own, to compare it to WNTS. I followed a similar methodology, though with a smaller sample size. The only major discrepancy I saw was in the performance of Ben Briley, whose performance was rated more highly in the blogs I polled. Nevertheless, I’m more than happy to go with WNTS’s numbers.

I, for one, thought C.J. did fine, but the numbers speak differently.

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