Top 12 projection (preliminary)

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Note: The site’s getting sort of hammered, and is thus being somewhat slow. Sorry about that.

Name Song WNTS DI VF Not-safe Probability
M.K. Nobilette Drops of Jupiter 24 0 1 0.515
Ben Briley Turning Home 53 0 1 0.466
C.J. Harris Waiting on the World to Change 36 0 2 0.456
Dexter Roberts Lucky Man 65 0 2 0.406
Malaya Watson Take Me to the King 58 0 5 0.306
Emily Piriz Let’s Get Loud 30 0.017 8 0.247
Caleb Johnson Working Man 66 0 10 0.150
Sam Woolf Just One 49 0.176 12 0.124
Alex Preston I Don’t Want to Be 45 0 14 0.094
Jessica Meuse White Flag 50 0 14 0.091
Majesty Rose Fix You 60 0 14 0.084
Jena Irene Suddenly I See 43 17.727 16 0.061

Important!

The methodology for the finals model is described here. The model is 87% accurate on ranking within a margin of error of +/- 3%. Probabilities being what they are, somebody with a not-safe probability of just 0.25 will be in the bottom 3 one out of four times. Please do not comment that the numbers are wrong. They are probabilities, not certainties or even claims. Do not gamble based on these numbers.

Names in green are predicted safe. Names in red are predicted in risk of bottom 3 status. Names in yellow are undecided. Any person not in green is not considered safe by the model.

Initial post: 12:50 AM EST

Any way you slice it, things are not looking good for M.K. (or MK) Nobilette. In the bottom 3 last week, her scores are the worst or (in Dialidol’s case) a tie for the worst on all indices. She has at least a 50% chance of landing in the bottom 3, and is highest ranked to be gone.

Votefair continues to see no support for Ben Briley, though he was safe last week. I’m guessing publicly that Ben will be safe. Note, however, that my independent sampling showed much less deviation from WNTS than last week.

C.J. Harris was projected gone last week, and in fact he was safe, a ranking error of at least 3 places. So what can I say? Assuming C.J. has an appeal to a lot of people, they aren’t being sampled by any online index that I know and trust.

Jena, Majesty, Jessica, Alex, and Sam appear to have nothing to worry about. It would be a little shocking for any of them to be in the bottom 3. Jena would be a huge shock. Sam, Caleb, and Emily would be mildly surprising, and Malaya and Dexter entirely thinkable.

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  • Matthew Richards

    I said last night on MJ’s blog that the bottom three would be Jena, Mk, and Emily. I got that right, but I thought it was a sure thing Mk would get booted instead of Emily (even though Emily sang worse last night). Maybe she benefited from last week’s “Bottom 3 Boost”. I was shocked the model ranked Jena so high: she’s female, she’s in an early round, she went first, her song choice was boring, and she didn’t get sent through to the finals by the voters the first time. The only thing that makes sense to me is Dial Idol fluked out and her support on Votefair is vastly higher than her actual votebase (just like Cj’s is vastly lower.) Intuitively, this was not a surprising result.