How can Jena Irene be 50/50 for the Top 3 if she was just in the Bottom 3?
Maybe this is kind of a slatepitch, but I don’t mind this call as much as you’d think. Haley Reinhart and Syesha Mercado were both in the bottom group in early rounds, but they made the Top 3. If you want to go back to before the model’s consideration, there was Nikki McKibbon and Elliott Yamin. At only 50%, I don’t think this call is awful.
But yes, as we move through the weeks, and confidence in Dialidol is further lost (or restored), this call is going to look much more silly, and I will start to discount Dialidol. Even Votefair has been highly misleading. As I said in an earlier post, if the fundamental rules of the game change, it can be difficult to know how to proceed. Saying that factors like those measured by other websites are worthless seems unsound: surely they are measuring something. And to be sure, one shouldn’t fundamentally change his view of something based on two improbable results.
However, if one has another reason to doubt a model, e.g. if there’s been a major rule change, then yes, I think you have to update your thinking. How can you not? The problem is that I do not yet have enough information to know how to update my thinking. If you asked me who was going home, I would not have picked Emily Piriz over M.K. Nobilette. If you did, great for you, you perhaps have a better feeling for this than I do. I’m mystified at the success of Dexter, Ben, and C.J. just one year after we saw the mass slaughter of every single male contestant over 5 consecutive weeks. Emily got a video clip showing her marine corps boyfriend, and went for the latino vote. Didn’t seem like a likely pick to me.