Top 3 Tracker for the Top 8 (redux)

The Top 3 tracker is a long view of the contest, trying to figure out who will end up in the Top 3 based on the current standings. It works in a similar way to the finals model, but rather than week-to-week, it looks at historical information to decide who most looks like a Top 3 contestant.

Sam Woolf continues to drop, and is now in 5th place. Malaya also took a big hit, though she is still ranked third least likely. Caleb Johnson fell somewhat. All of these gains went to Jena Irene and Alex Preston. Jena is now basically considered inevitable by the Top 3 Tracker, at about 98%; she has nowhere to go but down. Alex Preston, at 86%, is also extremely likely.

Caleb remains in 3rd place. Prior to this week, he had been steadily gaining, but that momentum halted this week. Jessica Meuse is steady, and Dexter and C.J. remain extremely unlikely. Malaya’s hit arguably puts her into extremely unlikely territory as well, which she already had been after the Top 10. Her recent gains with renditions of, e.g., “The Long and Winding Road”, have been erased by recent forgettable performances.

Regarding Sam’s ability to be in the Top 3 given that he was saved, it can certainly happen, though I believe the only instance of it was Jessica Sanchez, who made it to the finale. Michael Lynche made it to the Top 4, Matt Giraud the Top 5, and Casey Abrams the Top 6. We have fairly limited data for this set.

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