Top 6 projection (final)

Name Song WNTS MJs VF Not-safe Probability
C.J. Harris American Woman / Whatever It Is 16.5 76.3 3 0.553
Alex Preston Animal / Always on My Mind 48.0 6.6 14 0.364
Jessica Meuse Somebody to Love / Jolene 62.5 5.2 14 0.354
Sam Woolf It’s Time / You’re Still the One 42.5 8.8 17 0.321
Caleb Johnson Sting Me / Undo It 69.5 1.1 22 0.240
Jena Irene Barracuda / So Small 68.0 2.1 29 0.167


The methodology for the finals model is described here (though some modifications have been made to replace Dialidol with MJsBigBlog’s poll). The model is 87% accurate on ranking within a margin of error of +/- 3%. Probabilities being what they are, somebody with a not-safe probability of just 0.25 will be in the bottom 3 one out of four times. Please do not comment that the numbers are wrong. They are probabilities, not certainties or even claims. Do not gamble based on these numbers.

Names in green are most likely to be safe. Names in red are considered most at risk for being in the bottom 2. Names in yellow are undecided. The most probable bottom 2 is C.J. and Jessica Alex. However, anybody on the list being in the bottom 2 would not be shocking.

Final update 3:12 PM EST. No changes to rankings. Still close between Jessica and Alex. Nobody is even close to C.J.

Updated 11:07 EST. Alex drops to 2nd most likely, but the bottom 2 call is still ambiguous.

Initial post 12:34PM EST. As always, these numbers will change somewhat as the day progresses. I will update.

At the time of this writing, a whopping 75% of the readership at MJsBigBlog thinks C.J. will be eliminated tomorrow. His WNTS scores were both through the floor, and he’s the least popular on Votefair. We’re getting into fairly shocking territory if he escapes the bottom 2, and quite surprising if he is not eliminated tomorrow. Even if he is, he’s now tied for the longest-surviving wildcard in Idol history* (joining Trenyce, George Huff, and Matt Giraud. Giraud, incidentally, had to also be saved, so maybe he only should count as 7).

Tonight we saw something of a stumble for Alex. His average WNTS score tonight is 48, the lowest he’s gotten since his misadventure with “I Don’t Want to Be” way back in the Top 12. However, it won’t take much movement in Votefair to push him back into third place in the model standings.

As of now, the model is too uncertain to make a call about the person most likely to join C.J. in the bottom 2. Jessica, Alex, and Sam all have values that are too close to one another for decent confidence. This is doubly so now that Dialidol is gone, and a new index, MJsBigBlog’s poll, has been incorporated. However, Caleb and Jena look safe.

*Clay Aiken (as pointed out in the comments) did last longer. Aiken was voted in by the public, rather than chosen by the judges, but nonetheless survived 10 votes. You be the judge.

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  • Matthew Richards

    Cj isn’t tied for the longest-surviving Wildcard in Idol History…Clay Aiken wins that. He may be voted in, but he’s still a Wildcard.

    • Depends how you define “wild card;” for our purposes, it’s someone who was added to the competition by the judges, rather than by the voting public. I think. šŸ™‚

      • Matthew Richards

        Clay was kind of a weird case. He didn’t get voted in initially, but performed in a semi-final group against Ruben Studdard and Kimberley Locke on a night in which only two could advance. Maybe the format was too broken to discern anything meaningful from…he could have been the 3rd most popular of the 12 advancing semi-finalists despite not being voted in the first time.

  • akramwwhhoo

    Jena will be the longest surviving wildcard because I’m sure she’s save this week, and I don’t even think CJ will beat her if he survived

    • Jena certainly would seem to be in a better position than CJ, but stranger things have happened on Idol.