Green means predicted safe (outside of the margin of error). Red means predicted eliminated. Yellow means too close to call. Methodology is here.
Update: Joey misses the cut-off, and is too close to call. Adanna gains and is predicted safe. Alexis is no longer called eliminated, she is too close to call.
Men:
| Name | Approval Rating | Popularity | Order | Chance of advancement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clark | 58 | 24.5 | 5 | > 98% |
| Quentin | 66 | 19.6 | 8 | > 98% |
| Qaasim | 58 | 15.3 | 7 | 95.6% |
| Nick | 57 | 14.7 | 6 | 94.4% |
| Rayvon | 62 | 13.3 | 3 | 91.3% |
| Adam | 32 | 3.2 | 4 | 44.6% |
| Daniel | 17 | 6.5 | 1 | 43.2% |
| Mark | 18 | 3.2 | 2 | 31.9% |
Women:
| Name | Approval Rating | Popularity | Order | Chance of advancement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarina | 85 | 34.2 | 5 | > 98% |
| Tyanna | 64 | 18.6 | 1 | > 98% |
| JAX | 56 | 19.2 | 7 | > 98% |
| Adanna | 55 | 6.6 | 6 | 79.5% |
| Joey | 44 | 8.7 | 4 | 78.0% |
| Maddie | 42 | 6.3 | 3 | 64.9% |
| Loren | 36 | 3.7 | 2 | 46.4% |
| Alexis | 7 | 2 | 8 | 34.9% |
On the men’s side, I’m not confident calling anybody gone for sure. Mark seems like the best bet: he was early in the show, lazy as hell, and doesn’t have a young girl fanbase. The front-runner men, Quentin, Clark, Qaasim, and Rayvon seem like locks.
As far as the women, It’s hard to see a world in which Sarina-Joi and Tyanna aren’t advanced, and Jax being eliminated would be a stunner. Joey is conceivable, though. Alexis is really far down, and I’m comfortable calling her gone for now.
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