Top 16 forecast (final)

Green means predicted safe (outside of the margin of error). Red means predicted eliminated. Yellow means too close to call. Methodology is here.

Update: Joey misses the cut-off, and is too close to call. Adanna gains and is predicted safe. Alexis is no longer called eliminated, she is too close to call.

Men:

Name Approval Rating Popularity Order Chance of advancement
Clark 58 24.5 5 > 98%
Quentin 66 19.6 8 > 98%
Qaasim 58 15.3 7 95.6%
Nick 57 14.7 6 94.4%
Rayvon 62 13.3 3 91.3%
Adam 32 3.2 4 44.6%
Daniel 17 6.5 1 43.2%
Mark 18 3.2 2 31.9%

Women:

Name Approval Rating Popularity Order Chance of advancement
Sarina 85 34.2 5 > 98%
Tyanna 64 18.6 1 > 98%
JAX 56 19.2 7 > 98%
Adanna 55 6.6 6 79.5%
Joey 44 8.7 4 78.0%
Maddie 42 6.3 3 64.9%
Loren 36 3.7 2 46.4%
Alexis 7 2 8 34.9%

On the men’s side, I’m not confident calling anybody gone for sure. Mark seems like the best bet: he was early in the show, lazy as hell, and doesn’t have a young girl fanbase. The front-runner men, Quentin, Clark, Qaasim, and Rayvon seem like locks.

As far as the women, It’s hard to see a world in which Sarina-Joi and Tyanna aren’t advanced, and Jax being eliminated would be a stunner. Joey is conceivable, though. Alexis is really far down, and I’m comfortable calling her gone for now.

Bookmark the permalink.

Comments are closed