Green means predicted safe (outside of the margin of error). Red means predicted eliminated. Yellow means too close to call. Methodology is here.
Update: Joey misses the cut-off, and is too close to call. Adanna gains and is predicted safe. Alexis is no longer called eliminated, she is too close to call.
Men:
Name | Approval Rating | Popularity | Order | Chance of advancement |
---|---|---|---|---|
Clark | 58 | 24.5 | 5 | > 98% |
Quentin | 66 | 19.6 | 8 | > 98% |
Qaasim | 58 | 15.3 | 7 | 95.6% |
Nick | 57 | 14.7 | 6 | 94.4% |
Rayvon | 62 | 13.3 | 3 | 91.3% |
Adam | 32 | 3.2 | 4 | 44.6% |
Daniel | 17 | 6.5 | 1 | 43.2% |
Mark | 18 | 3.2 | 2 | 31.9% |
Women:
Name | Approval Rating | Popularity | Order | Chance of advancement |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sarina | 85 | 34.2 | 5 | > 98% |
Tyanna | 64 | 18.6 | 1 | > 98% |
JAX | 56 | 19.2 | 7 | > 98% |
Adanna | 55 | 6.6 | 6 | 79.5% |
Joey | 44 | 8.7 | 4 | 78.0% |
Maddie | 42 | 6.3 | 3 | 64.9% |
Loren | 36 | 3.7 | 2 | 46.4% |
Alexis | 7 | 2 | 8 | 34.9% |
On the men’s side, I’m not confident calling anybody gone for sure. Mark seems like the best bet: he was early in the show, lazy as hell, and doesn’t have a young girl fanbase. The front-runner men, Quentin, Clark, Qaasim, and Rayvon seem like locks.
As far as the women, It’s hard to see a world in which Sarina-Joi and Tyanna aren’t advanced, and Jax being eliminated would be a stunner. Joey is conceivable, though. Alexis is really far down, and I’m comfortable calling her gone for now.