Top 3 Tracker for the Top 11

The top 3 tracker is a look ahead to the end of the contest, assigning the chance that somebody will be in the Top 3 based on how they are doing now.

As you can see, there is a high amount of uncertainty at this stage. Even someone predicted super-safe like Clark has only a 40% chance of being in the Top 3. (Think Pia Toscano). Below is the historical information:

Hover your mouse to see who each dot corresponds to. Blue dots are contestants in previous years. Green dots that lie on the theoretical curve are this year’s contestants. Nobody making the Top 3 would be shocking, including Daniel Seavey (Haley Reinhart was considered even less likely than him at this point).