Updated 2:52PM on 3/15 with new VF numbers. Popularity consideration now 80% Votefair, 20% TVLines as Votefair’s total number of votes is almost 200 now. Quentin’s raw probability (without normalization) is now slightly below the cutoff. No change in rankings. Daniel’s probability falls to 50% if he was in the Bottom 3 this week (but there’s no way to know).
Green = predicted safe, Yellow = too close to call, Red = bottom group. Probabilities assume a bottom 3. Note that the show did not reveal the bottom 3 on Thursday. This is crappy and the show should start revealing that.
|Name||WNTS Rating||Popularity||Order||Safe Probability|
I posted the methodology here. Probability is calculated by considering order of song, WhatNotToSing rating, “Popularity”, gender, and whether or not the person has been in the bottom 3 before. The only people currently recorded as having been in the bottom 3 are Quentin and Adanna, who were Wild Card picks. This is because the producers did not tell us who was in the bottom 3 on Thursday.
Note that if a person was chosen to be in the bottom 3 at random, the chance of being safe would be 73%, quite high.
Daniel falls about 6 points since the initial post. If you are confident that Daniel was in the bottom 3, his probability falls to around
68% 50%, but still can’t be assigned in the bottom 3. The model is not confident enough to assign him to either category of people. Rayvon is the most likely, since he sang at the beginning of the show, was the least popular, and had a low WhatNotToSing rating. By contrast, Daniel sang near the end of the show, and is a bit more popular. Song order is quite significant. Two singers are now below the cutoff: Maddie and Rayvon. Maddie barely there.
Jax rises 2 places, as her numbers are far higher than they were on Thursday in popularity, while Adanna falls out of the safe zone, and Qaasim also falls in ranking.
As the season goes on, I assume Votefair is going to start getting more voters. To help with the noise, I’m taking a weighted average of online polls, but Votefair is counted more than the others. Once Votefair gets to > 200 voters, I will just count Votefair by itself as popularity. Right now, with only 177 voters (excluding people who voted for Sarina-Joi, who isn’t even in the competition anymore), I’m not sure that it can yet be trusted.