Top 11 forecast (final)

Updated 2:52PM on 3/15 with new VF numbers. Popularity consideration now 80% Votefair, 20% TVLines as Votefair’s total number of votes is almost 200 now. Quentin’s raw probability (without normalization) is now slightly below the cutoff. No change in rankings. Daniel’s probability falls to 50% if he was in the Bottom 3 this week (but there’s no way to know).

Green = predicted safe, Yellow = too close to call, Red = bottom group. Probabilities assume a bottom 3. Note that the show did not reveal the bottom 3 on Thursday. This is crappy and the show should start revealing that.

Name WNTS Rating Popularity Order Safe Probability
Tyanna 78 18.8 8 > 98.0%
Clark 64 20.9 4 > 98.0%
Nick 50 11.0 11 > 98.0%
Joey 88 15.5 3 > 98.0%
Quentin 44 6.5 10 98.0%
JAX 35 12.9 5 88.2%
Daniel 19 1.7 9 82.4%
Adanna 58 3.7 7 69.5%
Qaasim 21 2.9 6 69.3%
Maddie 46 4.2 2 56.3%
Rayvon 31 1.4 1 45.0%

I posted the methodology here. Probability is calculated by considering order of song, WhatNotToSing rating, “Popularity”, gender, and whether or not the person has been in the bottom 3 before. The only people currently recorded as having been in the bottom 3 are Quentin and Adanna, who were Wild Card picks. This is because the producers did not tell us who was in the bottom 3 on Thursday.

Note that if a person was chosen to be in the bottom 3 at random, the chance of being safe would be 73%, quite high.

Daniel falls about 6 points since the initial post. If you are confident that Daniel was in the bottom 3, his probability falls to around 68% 50%, but still can’t be assigned in the bottom 3. The model is not confident enough to assign him to either category of people. Rayvon is the most likely, since he sang at the beginning of the show, was the least popular, and had a low WhatNotToSing rating. By contrast, Daniel sang near the end of the show, and is a bit more popular. Song order is quite significant. Two singers are now below the cutoff: Maddie and Rayvon. Maddie barely there.

Jax rises 2 places, as her numbers are far higher than they were on Thursday in popularity, while Adanna falls out of the safe zone, and Qaasim also falls in ranking.

As the season goes on, I assume Votefair is going to start getting more voters. To help with the noise, I’m taking a weighted average of online polls, but Votefair is counted more than the others. Once Votefair gets to > 200 voters, I will just count Votefair by itself as popularity. Right now, with only 177 voters (excluding people who voted for Sarina-Joi, who isn’t even in the competition anymore), I’m not sure that it can yet be trusted.

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  • ABox

    Sarina-Joi should not have been up for elimination in the 1st place & should have been saved by the judges in the 2nd place. Anyway, I’m now ready to make my projection as to who’ll be this year’s winner … drum roll please… If Idol’s history is any guide, & it most definitely is, it’ll be this season’s favorite WGWG who’s also from the south, Clark Beckham.

  • Matthew Richards

    Very confused about how Daniel jumped from 24.5% chance safe on Wednesday to 94.5% tonight. His WNTS numbers only increased by 10 points, and his popularity didn’t budge much. Is there something I’m missing?

    • reubengann

      Order of performance makes a pretty big difference. Daniel was near the end of the show.

      • Matthew Richards

        I knew it made a difference, but I didn’t know the difference was that huge. Thanks!