I don’t think there’re any surprises here except for Joey Cook. Why did Joey’s popularity numbers crash so badly when she sang one bad song, only to rebound the next week? It’s not at all clear to me. But I suspect that next week Joey will rise back to fairly high percentage, and that this is an artifact.
Right now, the Top 3 Tracker does take into account how well the contestant did in previous rounds, but it mostly is looking at the current round (which means Joey’s performance of Girls Just Want to Have Fun). The model views her quite suspiciously because of that, and thus rates Nick and Quentin as being more likely. I’m not so sure myself.