Top 8 projection and Twitter Sentiment

Final update 4/7/2015 at 11:50 PM, no changing in rankings or calls.

Updated with official numbers. Jax’s current popularity numbers are down from last week, but Votefair is still gathering data. Right now 60% of the popularity is the new week’s numbers, 40% last week’s. This reduces the noise in the forecast without really sacrificing anything, since the numbers are 100% new numbers by the day of the show. Joey’s numbers are up a 9 points from last week, which is a bit more volatile than normal.

Green = projected safe, red = projected bottom 3, yellow = too close to call.

Name WNTS Rating Popularity Order Safe Probability
Clark 84 46.0 7 85.7%
Joey 71 17.0 4 78.3%
Rayvon 68 0.0 8 69.5%
JAX 70 12.0 2 68.0%
Quentin 66 6.0 5 64.9%
Tyanna 54 8.0 3 57.1%
Nick 39 10.0 1 52.0%
Qaasim 10 2.0 6 24.6%

Qaasim appears to be in trouble, but I reserve the right to rewrite this wrap-up after official numbers come in from WNTS.

With that qualification out of the way, it’s highly believable to me that Qaasim could be eliminated. He was saved, and surviving only 2 rounds since a save would be low for a saved contestant. However, in a night of pretty good performances, his stood out as being pretty bad. The only advantage Qaasim has is that he sang near the end of the show.

If it comes down to Twitter again, my data would seem to suggest that Qaasim would be in trouble:

TwitterSentiment2015-04-02He has the highest number of negatives by about 6 percentage points, followed by Nick and Tyanna. Joey recovers significantly from last week. Jax is in the top spot, followed by Clark.

Third most popular on Twitter sentiment was Rayvon, and maybe that shouldn’t be a surprise. Although I think Rayvon was probably not the lowest vote-getter, his fate was left up to Twitter. Looking at the Twitter trends:

trends#SaveRayvon trended, while #SaveDaniel did not. I have no way of determining which hashtag got the highest volume of tweets, as that is not a search feature of the Twitter API.

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