Top 11 redux Elimination Projections

The model is relatively sure of the bottom 3. With a binary value model it thinks

Contestant Elim. Probability
Naima 0.216
Paul 0.278
Thia 0.260

A continuous variable analysis is way more sure of Naima

Contestant Elim. Probability
Naima 0.448
Paul 0.102
Thia 0.079

My personal feeling is that the second predictions are better, and the significance is better anyway. Naima is toast, then Paul and Thia in a dead heat. This could change if the major scoring services change a lot. I don’t think that’ll happen. Bye Naima!

Final 11 Post game: one of the craziest results shows ever

Three people in the bottom 3 who had never been there before. It’s only happened twice in 57 before (3% of the time):

Season 4, Final 9, Scott Savol, Nikko Smith, Vonzell Solomon
Season 5, Final 9, Elliott Yamin, Paris Bennett, Mandisa

I’m inclined to say that model could never have predicted that, but the system clearly needs a lot more refinement. Part of the problem is that the ratings were based on a few individuals, instead of a broad base survey. I’ll rerun the numbers when those numbers become available.

Still, just a shocking result. Without having seen the show, I can’t believe it.