Updated 10:54 AM EST. Candice has expanded her lead on Dialidol, and is now called by that service as well, outside the margin of error. Dialidol tends to be cautious when it calls a contest, so this is looking better for Candice.

The model predicts Candice Glover will win season 12 of American Idol.

Candice is currently sweeping all major indices, and while the numbers may flit a little this way and that, unless Kree can actually switch one of them, she is unlikely to win. Mostly, though, this comes down to Dialidol, and that measurement shows Candice winning by a large margin. Without some kind of west coast surge, there’s no way I can see to do it.

Of course, Kree could win, but it would be a major upset. Candice is about 3 times likelier to take the title, at least as far as the model can tell. Note that until the model is wrong about a finale, there is some uncertainty as to its ratings (as perverse as that may sound).

You can see how the model rated past finale rounds to see if they match your gut about how those years ran. To me they fit pretty good. And based on what I saw, and based on the huge amount of high-rated performances (as rated by WNTS) that Candice has had, she looks more like a winner than Kree does (from a numerical point of view).

It’s not in the bag, but it looks good for Candice fans.

Reuben is the statistician and lead writer at IdolAnalytics. Follow him on Twitter. His personal site (run all year round) is IdleAnalytics.

The official model call will be posted as soon as WNTS ratings are posted, but those don’t matter all that much at this stage. Candice is handily beating Kree on both Dialidol and Votefair, and that by itself is enough to put her at a 75% chance to win, versus only 25% for Kree. If WNTS ratings come in like I think they will, it will be a clean sweep. Check back for the official numbers after Dialidol equilibrates a little, but I have Candice at about 1:3 odds at present.

Updated 11:35 AM EST. No change in ranking.

Update: NB: If you read the post below you’ll see that this year will be the second closest Top 3 in the model’s history. The only one more competitive was Elliott Yamin vs Katharine McPhee. Quite close contest this year.

Names in green are predicted safe. Names in red are the most likely bottom 3. Names in yellow are undecided. Any person not in green is not considered safe by the model. The most probable eliminated contestant is Angie, though none of these would be shocking.

DialIdol had a miserable failure last week, which is unusual. Typically, that index becomes more accurate as time goes by, and by the Top 4 one shouldn’t take its pronouncement lightly. Given that, Angie seems to be in trouble. As to this (official) projection, Angie had a poor Dialidol score and was in the middle on WNTS, and is thus the most likely to be eliminated based on historical factors. I would note that these numbers are fairly close to one another, and so this represents something close to a three-way tie.

However, if you are skeptical as to this call (as am I), then perhaps you will be more interested in the following “Dialidol is full of crap” projection:

This is obviously not the official model call, but it may match your gut more than the official one does, as it certainly does mine. The Top 3 Tracker had Kree in third place all year with the exception of one week. Given the accuracy of the T3T, I tend to think Kree is heading home.

Nonetheless, the official call is Angie as of this writing.

Reuben is the statistician and lead writer at IdolAnalytics. Follow him on Twitter. His personal site (run all year round) is IdleAnalytics.

Final update 2:50 PM EST. No ranking changes.

Updated 10:46 AM EST. Angie gained a bit, and Kree fell, so they swapped positions.

Names in green are predicted safe. Names in red are the most likely bottom 2. Names in yellow are undecided. Any person not in green is not considered safe by the model. The most probable bottom 2 is Candice and Angie Kree. However, anybody on the list being in the bottom 2 would not be shocking. [updated: Angie no longer 2nd most probable, Kree is. It's still basically a tie.]

Sorry to do this folks, but there’s no firm prediction possible based on the preliminary numbers. Amber, Kree, and Angie are running what amounts to a dead heat as far as the model can tell, and so it can’t make any safe calls. Nobody is far-and-away winning this race.

However, for the second week in a row, the model thinks Candice is the most at risk of elimination. She was in the bottom 2 last week, so I can certainly see it happening. Amber would be the one my gut would pick, but the model chooses her as the least likely, mainly on the strength of her Dialidol number, which is significant. If you’ve read the methodology post, you know that Dialidol becomes a stronger indicator as the year goes on, whereas WNTS and Votefair become less predictive with each passing week.

As perverse as it might seem, this prediction is independent of the Top 3 Tracker, which takes a longer view of the season. In a sense, the T3T is not sensitive to week-to-week shocks. As such, it would say that Amber is gone. However, based just on tonight’s numbers, Candice is.

Note that I haven’t a clue how I would take into account the two weeks’ votes being pooled. These numbers are based purely on tonight; since Candice was the highest probability in both weeks, that’s unambiguous that she would be the most likely.

Two things to ponder. 1. Amber was first on Dialidol last week and this week, and was nonetheless in the bottom 2 last week. 2. Angie was last third on Dialidol last week, but we know she was in the top 2. If Dialidol is very different from previous years, of course, the model will be way off. However, the model was correct in calling Angie safe last week, so the other factors do matter. Take it for what it’s worth.

Final update 4:04PM EST.

Updated 8:16AM EST: Some pretty big movement overnight. Candice is still the most likely, but Kree moved into danger and Amber moved into uncertain territory.

Names in green are predicted safe. Names in red are the most likely bottom 3. Names in yellow are undecided. Any person not in green is not considered safe by the model. The most probable bottom 2 is Candice and Amber. However, anybody on the list being in the bottom 2 would not be shocking.

Original post:

I know, I know, I don’t believe it either.

What events would conspire to convince the model that Candice could possibly be in jeopardy? She had a high performance approval, and decent Dialidol numbers. But while Amber and Kree had sagging numbers on at least one index, they also have an indicator of strength in another. Kree had a bad Dialidol score, but is quite popular on the voting on Votefair. Amber has very low popularity on Votefair, and quite bad performance approval, but had the highest Dialidol score.

Candice and Amber are basically in a tie, but it would be strange if Kree were not voted off, no? She was in the bottom group last week and got what passes for bad reviews tonight from the judges. Nevertheless, history would dictate that Kree is safe. If Votefair readjusts by tomorrow, this could change, of course, so I will update. [Amber gained overnight, and is now ahead of Candice by about 7 points]

Angie continues to look like the front runner. She topped two indices, though she was third in Dialidol. I’m not clear on why her numbers are sagging on Dialidol, but the model hedges against that index even at this point in the contest.

Final update: no change in calls.

Names in green are predicted safe. Names in red are the most likely bottom 2. Names in yellow are undecided. Any person not in green is not considered safe by the model. The most probable bottom 2 is . However, anybody on the list being in the bottom 2 would not be shocking.

There seems to be the sentiment that the save will definitely be used tomorrow, and now that I see that the finale is scheduled for May 15, I suppose that’s probably true. That would mean this week is a bye, and that’s just a shame. I don’t know that a week where there’s no possibility of elimination is likely to draw too much attention.

For whatever they’re worth, there are no surprises in the above numbers, as they are consistent with what’s been happening the whole time. Janelle was pretty much declared the one the judges want to be voted off (or saved, as the case may be). Kree Harrison is not safe within the margin of error, so there could be a surprise there, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Candice may gain ground by tomorrow afternoon, as she did last week, and overtake Angie as the least likely to be in the bottom 2, but she didn’t have nearly the standout performance that she did last week, and Angie somewhat bounced back from a 3 week slump.

I’m a bit surprised by Amber’s standing on Dialidol. Just last week she was dead last on that service’s prediction, and tonight she’s way out in front, something that I find weird but possible.

(Final update 3:19PM EST)
(Updated 10:48 EST)

Update: No change in the calls. However, for the first time, Angie is not the least likely to be not-safe, based on Candice’s huge rise.

Original post:

Names in green are predicted safe. Names in red are the most likely bottom 2. Names in yellow are undecided. Any person not in green is not considered safe by the model. The most probable bottom 2 is Janelle and Lazaro, However, anybody on the list being in the bottom 2 would not be shocking.

Dialidol shows Lazaro pulling second place, and at this stage of the contest it’s not a good idea to ignore Dialidol. This by itself isn’t enough to say Lazaro is doing fine. In fact, his other numbers are terrible. But considering historical factors, he’s not the most likely to be voted off.

That honor goes to Janelle, I’m afraid, and by quite a large margin. This would not be surprising, absent Lazaro’s performance tonight, since Janelle has twice found herself in the bottom group, and Lazaro only once. I don’t feel like the judges gave enough of a full-throated denouncement of Lazaro, but even if they had he appears to have some rabid voters on his side.

Factoring in the margin of error, in fact, the model can’t really decide between Lazaro and Amber as being in the bottom group.

I pray the most likely to be voted off isn’t. There’s still a good probability Lazaro is gone. It’s just not something I would necessarily count on.

I have no idea what has made the staff at WhatNotToSing this damned irascible. They are so bothered by this season that they’re threatening to quit Idol statistics altogether. Maybe they’re going just on the numbers, but I recently watched season 2 again for an upcoming retrospective video, and this season is way better than that. If that site does indeed choose to stop collecting their statistics, I will have to find some alternative for judging performance quality. It seems a peculiar fit of pique over what is at worst an average season.

Final update 2:35 PM. No change in ranking of the bottom 3, but Candice dropped a little relative to Amber. They’re basically neck-and-neck.

Updated 9:49 AM. Final update probably around 2pm since I have a job. There were no changes in the ranking from the update.

Names in green are predicted safe. Names in red are the most likely bottom 3. Names in yellow are undecided. Any person not in green is not considered safe by the model. The most probable bottom 3 is Burnell, Lazaro, and Janelle. However, anybody on the list being in the bottom 3 would not be shocking.

The Idol Analytics model was sort of devised to be in line with how I think Idol works. But I’m beginning to think maybe it’s a little too representative of that this year.

In any case, there are no surprises in this listing. Janelle has been considered the weakest girl, though she never has been in the Bottom 3, so the model could (of course) be wrong. All predictions are beyond the margin of error at 87% confidence. Burnell and Lazaro are predicted not-safe at the 95% confidence range.

Dialidol looks to be having a lot of volatility. I watched Candice go from #1 to #4 in a span of about 20 minutes tonight. I don’t really know how to account for that (since, I confess, the Dialidol weighing algorithm is a bit opaque to me).

I never have put a lot of stock into the idea that certain songs or even artists determine the disposition of a contestant, but for what it’s worth I’ve compared the song selections tonight to the song choice indices I’ve developed here and here. Candice and Kree made choices that were above average (both for song and artist), and Amber made bad to mediocre picks. Janelle and Lazaro picked below average artists to cover, though their actual songs were not common enough to rank. No data is available for the other picks.

WhatNotToSing has an editorial up arguing that the judges’ save has to be used tomorrow … or it doesn’t. Their reasoning goes that the judges will never go a season without using the save, and since next week is the last possible round to do so, anybody next week will know that nothing counts. This is not convincing at all to me, though your opinion may differ. I think it’s easily possible the save will not be used this year.