Top 8 projection and Twitter Sentiment

Final update 4/7/2015 at 11:50 PM, no changing in rankings or calls.

Updated with official numbers. Jax’s current popularity numbers are down from last week, but Votefair is still gathering data. Right now 60% of the popularity is the new week’s numbers, 40% last week’s. This reduces the noise in the forecast without really sacrificing anything, since the numbers are 100% new numbers by the day of the show. Joey’s numbers are up a 9 points from last week, which is a bit more volatile than normal.

Green = projected safe, red = projected bottom 3, yellow = too close to call.

Name WNTS Rating Popularity Order Safe Probability
Clark 84 46.0 7 85.7%
Joey 71 17.0 4 78.3%
Rayvon 68 0.0 8 69.5%
JAX 70 12.0 2 68.0%
Quentin 66 6.0 5 64.9%
Tyanna 54 8.0 3 57.1%
Nick 39 10.0 1 52.0%
Qaasim 10 2.0 6 24.6%

Qaasim appears to be in trouble, but I reserve the right to rewrite this wrap-up after official numbers come in from WNTS.

With that qualification out of the way, it’s highly believable to me that Qaasim could be eliminated. He was saved, and surviving only 2 rounds since a save would be low for a saved contestant. However, in a night of pretty good performances, his stood out as being pretty bad. The only advantage Qaasim has is that he sang near the end of the show.

If it comes down to Twitter again, my data would seem to suggest that Qaasim would be in trouble:

TwitterSentiment2015-04-02He has the highest number of negatives by about 6 percentage points, followed by Nick and Tyanna. Joey recovers significantly from last week. Jax is in the top spot, followed by Clark.

Third most popular on Twitter sentiment was Rayvon, and maybe that shouldn’t be a surprise. Although I think Rayvon was probably not the lowest vote-getter, his fate was left up to Twitter. Looking at the Twitter trends:

trends#SaveRayvon trended, while #SaveDaniel did not. I have no way of determining which hashtag got the highest volume of tweets, as that is not a search feature of the Twitter API.

Top 3 Tracker for the Top 8

I don’t think there’re any surprises here except for Joey Cook. Why did Joey’s popularity numbers crash so badly when she sang one bad song, only to rebound the next week? It’s not at all clear to me. But I suspect that next week Joey will rise back to fairly high percentage, and that this is an artifact.

Right now, the Top 3 Tracker does take into account how well the contestant did in previous rounds, but it mostly is looking at the current round (which means Joey’s performance of Girls Just Want to Have Fun). The model views her quite suspiciously because of that, and thus rates Nick and Quentin as being more likely. I’m not so sure myself.

Top 9 projection and Twitter sentiment

Final Update: Daniel rises out of “sure” territory. FFS, who is voting for this person?

Update 2: Joey falls to second most likely. Yikes.

Update: Joey’s popularity has cratered at Votefair. Current forecast will converge to this week’s current numbers soon, but her fans are abandoning her over there. She falls to third likeliest.

Green = projected safe, Red = projected bottom 3, yellow = too close to call. Probabilities assume a bottom 3. See the methodology post for info on how this works. That post contains all the data and the code.

Name WNTS Rating Popularity Order Safe Probability
Clark 80 43.0 7 98.0%
JAX 65 16.0 5 94.2%
Nick 59 7.0 6 92.4%
Quentin 71 11.0 2 74.7%
Tyanna 52 7.0 4 69.5%
Rayvon 24 1.0 9 52.8%
Qaasim 25 1.0 8 47.6%
Joey 21 10.0 3 42.9%
Daniel 16 3.0 1 27.6%

Original post:

The last time Daniel Seavey was projected in the bottom 3 (outside the margin of error) was in the Top 12, and he was almost in a dead heat with Sarina-Joi. The model was only barely comfortable projecting him in the bottom 3, and I’m almost sure that he was, although the producers did not release that information. To say that Daniel is likely to go is a bit of an understatement. His raw safe percentage (before normalization is applied) is 31 percentage points below the cutoff at present. Now, the popularity numbers, as I’ve done in previous weeks, are frozen in their numbers from last week (so that Votefair has time to re-poll people), and thus that might change. Daniel would have to jump from his present percentage of the plurality vote, 2%, to 7%, which would be more popular than Tyanna presently is. I do not see that happening. Now, of course, that’s not to say that Daniel is definitely going home. But he sang in the first slot, his WNTS scores have been abysmal, and his popularity is now the lowest. With fewer women to serve as cannon fodder, Daniel is not going to have an easy time of it. Worsters better get to it if they want to save him. I can’t say that I’m too mad at the model’s performance so far. This week had a bottom 3 of Rayvon, Maddie, and Adanna, which were 3 of the 4 lowest rated in the model’s view. (Daniel was the 4th, of course.) No single indicator would have predicted Adanna’s elimination, which is why I bothered with the model in the first place. She had the 4th highest WNTS rating and was tied with Rayvon and Qaasim in popularity. But she sang first, she’s female, and she was a wild card pick. Bing bang boom. For several weeks there have been a number of people in super-safe territory (> 98%), which is on account of there having been 11 or more contestants and only 3 bottom-3 slots. Now with 9 people, the odds of being that safe are considerably reduced. Clark stays well into that territory, but nobody else does. Joey has fallen significantly, in 6th place and not called safe within the margin of error. At 4th most likely, her fans would be justified being a bit nervous. To wit, see Twitter’s response to the Top 9: TwitterSentiment2015-03-26Joey leaps into last place on positive sentiment, as Daniel somehow recovers to above 70%. I have no historical basis to say what that means as far as her chance of being safe, but I present it anyway for your consideration.

Top 11 redux projection and Twitter sentiment (final)

Update 2015-03-25: Final update, 100% Votefair. Adanna edges out of really-sure territory. She’s fairly close with Daniel.

Update 2015-03-23 @ 8 PM: Now with 80% Votefair. Adanna back in the red. Likeliest bottom 3 is her, Daniel, Maddie.

Update 2015-03-20 @ 10 PM: Votefair is registering very few votes. I’m compensating with similar polls on a weighted basis. 60% Votefair, 20% tvline.com and 20% MJsBigBlog. The numbers will converge to Votefair’s if/when more people vote in that poll. Adanna rises a bit. She is still the most likely, but no longer outside the margin-of-error.

Green = projected safe, Red = projected bottom 3, yellow = too close to call. Please read the methodology post for the details on how the model works. All the code and data are there.

Name WNTS Rating Popularity Order Safe Probability
Clark 81 37.0 9 98.0%
JAX 68 13.0 10 98.0%
Joey 77 16.0 5 98.0%
Quentin 64 9.0 7 98.0%
Nick 42 7.0 4 92.8%
Qaasim 40 3.0 11 92.3%
Tyanna 26 5.0 6 61.3%
Rayvon 25 3.0 3 55.4%
Maddie 15 2.0 8 52.5%
Daniel 6 2.0 2 28.7%
Adanna 48 3.0 1 24.7%

The judges used, some would say squandered, the save on Qaasim tonight. For now, the model is sour on Adanna Duru. She sang at the beginning of the show, she’s female, she had an ok-but-not-great performance, and her popularity is lagging. If her numbers improve, Daniel could be the call. Until that time, history would caution us that the VoteForTheWorst contestants have survived worse.

Joey, Jax, and Clark are frontrunners in the view of the model, and I certainly wouldn’t disagree. These are the people to beat. Any of them would be a shocking elimination.

Nick fell significantly this week in his WhatNotToSing rating, but I have trouble seeing him fall out of the safe zone. Qaasim himself is predicted safe even though he now has been in the bottom group. We’ll see if that holds up.

The model continues to be doubtful about Rayvon. If his popularity among voters doesn’t rise, I’m not sure he can break out. As most likely to be eliminated this week, and now third most likely, things don’t bode well for him.

Twitter predictably ranted about Daniel’s safety:

TwitterSentiment2015-03-20Daniel’s positives are barely over 60%, which is pretty damn bad. Nobody else is below 70. But somebody is voting for this kid.

As for using the save, about 62% of tweets were positive about using it, versus 38% negative.

 

Top 11 forecast (final)

Updated 2:52PM on 3/15 with new VF numbers. Popularity consideration now 80% Votefair, 20% TVLines as Votefair’s total number of votes is almost 200 now. Quentin’s raw probability (without normalization) is now slightly below the cutoff. No change in rankings. Daniel’s probability falls to 50% if he was in the Bottom 3 this week (but there’s no way to know).

Green = predicted safe, Yellow = too close to call, Red = bottom group. Probabilities assume a bottom 3. Note that the show did not reveal the bottom 3 on Thursday. This is crappy and the show should start revealing that.

Name WNTS Rating Popularity Order Safe Probability
Tyanna 78 18.8 8 > 98.0%
Clark 64 20.9 4 > 98.0%
Nick 50 11.0 11 > 98.0%
Joey 88 15.5 3 > 98.0%
Quentin 44 6.5 10 98.0%
JAX 35 12.9 5 88.2%
Daniel 19 1.7 9 82.4%
Adanna 58 3.7 7 69.5%
Qaasim 21 2.9 6 69.3%
Maddie 46 4.2 2 56.3%
Rayvon 31 1.4 1 45.0%

I posted the methodology here. Probability is calculated by considering order of song, WhatNotToSing rating, “Popularity”, gender, and whether or not the person has been in the bottom 3 before. The only people currently recorded as having been in the bottom 3 are Quentin and Adanna, who were Wild Card picks. This is because the producers did not tell us who was in the bottom 3 on Thursday.

Note that if a person was chosen to be in the bottom 3 at random, the chance of being safe would be 73%, quite high.

Daniel falls about 6 points since the initial post. If you are confident that Daniel was in the bottom 3, his probability falls to around 68% 50%, but still can’t be assigned in the bottom 3. The model is not confident enough to assign him to either category of people. Rayvon is the most likely, since he sang at the beginning of the show, was the least popular, and had a low WhatNotToSing rating. By contrast, Daniel sang near the end of the show, and is a bit more popular. Song order is quite significant. Two singers are now below the cutoff: Maddie and Rayvon. Maddie barely there.

Jax rises 2 places, as her numbers are far higher than they were on Thursday in popularity, while Adanna falls out of the safe zone, and Qaasim also falls in ranking.

As the season goes on, I assume Votefair is going to start getting more voters. To help with the noise, I’m taking a weighted average of online polls, but Votefair is counted more than the others. Once Votefair gets to > 200 voters, I will just count Votefair by itself as popularity. Right now, with only 177 voters (excluding people who voted for Sarina-Joi, who isn’t even in the competition anymore), I’m not sure that it can yet be trusted.